Match Info

ENGLAND: FA CUP - 1/128-FINALS

Date: 4 November 2023, Saturday


	Alfreton Town		Worthing

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	3.3
	2.1	3.7	3.25
	2.1	3.5	3.2
	2.19	3.44	3.18
	2.19	3.44	3.18
	2.05	3.5	3.2
	2.09	3.58	3.28	Watch
	2.1	3.5	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.14)	3.51 ↑ (3.51)	3.23 ↑ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alfreton Town
44.2%

Draw
26.7%

Worthing
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

26.5%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

25.7%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alfreton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Worthing has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alfreton Town than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Worthing than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Alfreton Town - Worthing Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Willis G. (G) 14. Brisley S. (C) 5. Digie K. 2. Clackstone J. 23. Newall N. 8. Cantrill G. 4. Lund A. 12. Perritt H. 22. Fewster B. 7. Thewlis J. 9. Day J.	1. Rees R. (G) 23. Felix J. 6. Rye J. 2. Colbran J. (C) 4. Wills K. 22. Smith B. 8. Klass M. 14. Martin O. 20. Aguair R. 11. Wheeler N. 9. Robinson J.
Substitutes
13. Askew J. (G) 21. Grewal-Pollard W. 17. Oliver J. 29. Taylor R. 10. Waldock L. 6. Wiley D.	28. Cashman D. 24. Jeanes Z. 7. Luer G. 21. Luque J. 10. Pearce O. 16. Starkey J. 18. Starkey O. 3. Tutt C. 27. Vincent L.

Preview

Replayed if draw.

Alfreton is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Worthing is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Alfreton have a series of home games.

Alfreton will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alfreton Town
English National League North
28.10.23	Alfreton Town - Farsley	2:0 ✺
24.10.23	Alfreton Town - Hereford	3:1 ✺
21.10.23	Gloucester City - Alfreton Town	3:0 ✺
English FA Cup
14.10.23	Alfreton Town - Macclesfield Town	3:1 ✺
English National League North
07.10.23	Alfreton Town - Warrington Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWLWT
- Worthing FC
English National League South
28.10.23	Bath City - Worthing	0:2 ✺
24.10.23	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Worthing	4:1 ✺
21.10.23	Worthing - Yeovil Town	1:2 ✺
English FA Cup
14.10.23	Worthing - Bath City	2:0 ✺
English National League South
07.10.23	Worthing - Truro City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLLWT

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