Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima)

Referee: Quiroz J. C. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox


	Alianza Lima		Atlético Grau

	1	X	2
	1.5	4	6.5	Watch
	1.41	4.15	8	Watch
	1.5	4.07	6.58
	1.56	3.67	6.37	Watch
	1.51	4.05	6.58	Watch
	1.35	4.7	7.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.46)	4.11 ↓ (4.32)	6.88 ↑ (6.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Lima
63.6%

Draw
22.8%

Atlético Grau
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64%

21.7%

14.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.2%

21%

13.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Atlético Grau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Grau than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Alianza Lima - Atlético Grau Predictions

Users Predictions: Alianza Lima will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alianza Lima will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Viscarra G. (G) 14. Huaman M. 24. Chavez G. 3. Estrada J. 21. Trauco M. 7. Gaibor F. 55. Aquino P. 27. Quevedo K. 19. Cantero A. 10. Ceppelini P. 34. Paolo Guerrero	1. Alvarez P. (G) 15. Rostaing J. 27. Tapia R. 13. Franco D. 14. Bolivar J. 7. Garro J. 5. Guarderas R. 8. Soto D. 10. de la Cruz P. 11. Bandiera N. 9. Sandoval T.
Substitutes
17. Archimbaud J. 29. Arias B. 9. Barcos H. 1. Campos A. (G) 15. Castillo J. 25. Gentile G. 13. Lagos R. 18. Pena S. 16. Succar M.	2. Cavagna F. 12. Fuentes A. (G) 29. Garcia B. 22. Herrera Joel 17. Reyes J. 6. Rodas E. 99. Ruidiaz R. 20. Vasquez A. 25. Vilca R.
Coaches
Gorosito N.	Comizzo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Bandiera N. ⚽, de la Cruz P. (A),
25', Bolivar J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
53', 1 - 1, Cantero A. ⚽, Paolo Guerrero (A),
55', 2 - 1, Estrada J. ⚽,
57', Guarderas R. ↓, Reyes J. ↑,
69', Garro J. ↓, Vilca R. ↑,
69', Sandoval T. ↓, Ruidiaz R. ↑,
76', Ceppelini P. 🟨,
76', Ceppelini P. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
76', Paolo Guerrero ↓, Barcos H. ↑,
78', Bandiera N. ↓, Herrera Joel ↑,
78', de la Cruz P. ↓, Vasquez A. ↑,
83', Cantero A. ↓, Gentile G. ↑,
83', Quevedo K. ↓, Archimbaud J. ↑,
88', Ruidiaz R. 🟨,
89', Gaibor F. ↓, Pena S. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza Lima won 3.

Recent form of Alianza Lima has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Grau is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Grau may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Alianza Lima is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Alianza Lima: Castillo E. (Red Card) Zambrano C. (Red Card)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Alianza Lima won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 1.4:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Alianza Lima won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 1.5:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
28.09.25	Cienciano - Alianza Lima	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
25.09.25	Universidad de Chile - Alianza Lima	2:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
21.09.25	Alianza Lima - Comerciantes Unidos	4:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
18.09.25	Alianza Lima - Universidad de Chile	0:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
13.09.25	Alianza Lima - Deportivo Garcilaso	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLWTL
- Atlético Grau
Peruvian Liga 1
26.09.25	Atlético Grau - Sport Huancayo	3:1 ✺
22.09.25	Sport Boys - Atlético Grau	1:1 ✺
18.09.25	Atlético Grau - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Atlético Grau - ADT Tarma	2:0 ✺
24.08.25	Cienciano - Atlético Grau	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
10.05.25	Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima	1:1
18.09.24	Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima	1:0
14.04.24	Alianza Lima - Atlético Grau	2:0
23.06.23	Alianza Lima - Atlético Grau	2:0
26.03.23	Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima	1:2
10.07.22	Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima	1:2
04.02.22	Alianza Lima - Atlético Grau	1:1

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