Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima)

Referee: Palomino M. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Max, Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz, SportsEngine Play
Vietnam	TV 360


	Alianza Lima		Universitario de Deportes

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.9	4	Watch
	2.15	2.87	3.10
	2.1	2.82	4.05	Watch
	2.15	3.05	3.99
	2.28	2.86	3.54	Watch
	2.09	2.9	3.95
	2.1	2.9	4.01	Watch
	2.07	2.9	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.92)	2.9 ↓ (3.3)	3.79 ↓ (4.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Lima
43.6%

Draw
32%

Universitario de Deportes
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

28.7%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

31.1%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alianza Lima's form might have worsened.

Universitario de Deportes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alianza Lima, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universitario de Deportes than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Alianza Lima - Universitario de Deportes Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Duarte A. (G) 17. Advincula L. 6. Garces R. (C) 3. Antoni M. 13. Huaman M. 5. Pavez E. 7. Gaibor F. 18. Burlamaqui A. 20. Velez J. 99. Girotti F. 8. Castillo E.	1. Romero D. (G) 2. Fara C. 3. Riveros W. 5. Di Benedetto M. 39. Quispe Cordova P. A. 24. Polo A. (C) 23. Murrugarra J. 17. Concha J. 33. Inga C. 18. Lapadula G. 20. Valera A.
Substitutes
29. Archimbaud J. 11. Cantero A. 15. Castillo J. 4. Chavez G. 12. De la Cruz A. (G) 32. Garcia J. 25. Gentile G. 22. Neira C. 9. Ramos L.	30. Alzugaray L. 10. Calcaterra H. 29. Corzo A. 8. Fertoli H. 19. Flores E. 70. Gutierrez J. 28. Quiroz A. 4. Santamaria A. 25. Vargas M. (G)
Coaches
Guede P.	Cuper H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Valera A. ⚽, Lapadula G. (A),
26', Guede P. 🟨,
45+1', Di Benedetto M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', Burlamaqui A. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
58', Antoni M. ↓, Chavez G. ↑,
64', Girotti F. 🟨,
70', Lapadula G. ↓, Alzugaray L. ↑,
72', Murrugarra J. ↓, Calcaterra H. ↑,
77', Quispe Cordova P. A. ↓, Fertoli H. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Girotti F. ⚽, Velez J. (A),
84', Calcaterra H. 🟨,
89', Garces R. 🟨,
90+5', Castillo E. ↓, Ramos L. ↑,
90+7', 1 - 2, Alzugaray L. ⚽,
90+8', Alzugaray L. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza Lima won 0.

Recent performances by Alianza Lima have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Uni de Deportes is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Alianza Lima could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alianza Lima won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:22. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Alianza Lima won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 0.9:1.1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	U. de Deportes	11	6	3	2	21:18	3	21
11	Alianza Lima	10	4	4	2	14:10	4	16

Last Results with these Odds

Alianza Lima - the odds 1.92 are the expected chance of winning is 49.3%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
06.09.26	Juan Pablo II College - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Alianza Lima - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:1 ✺
23.08.26	FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Alianza Lima - Cajamarca	1:0 ✺
08.08.26	Sport Boys - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TLTWT
- Universitario de Deportes
Peruvian Liga 1
05.09.26	Universitario de Deportes - Comerciantes Unidos	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	Cajamarca - Universitario de Deportes	2:4 ✺
23.08.26	Universitario de Deportes - Los Chankas	3:0 ✺
16.08.26	Cajamarca - Universitario de Deportes	2:3 ✺
07.08.26	Universitario de Deportes - Sporting Cristal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
04.04.26	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Lima	1:0
24.08.25	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Lima	0:0
05.04.25	Alianza Lima - Universitario de Deportes	1:1
26.07.24	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Lima	2:1
10.02.24	Alianza Lima - Universitario de Deportes	0:1
08.11.23	Alianza Lima - Universitario de Deportes	0:2
04.11.23	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Lima	1:1

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