Match Info

WORLD: Club Friendly

Date: 26 June 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima)


	Alianza Lima		Bolívar

	1	X	2
	1.52	4.33	5
	1.51	4.09	5.53
	1.52	4.09	5.53
	1.44	4.2	5.8
	1.47	4.25	5.51	Watch
	1.5	4.4	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.64)	4.23 ↑ (3.75)	5.46 ↑ (4.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Lima
61.5%

Draw
21.7%

Bolívar
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

24.3%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.8%

27%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alianza Lima's performance.

Bolívar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bolívar than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Alianza Lima - Bolívar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. De la Cruz A. (G) 22. Arregui A. 9. Barcos H. 27. Cabellos C. 18. De Santis J. 2. Freytes J. 20. Fuentes A. 6. Garces R. 13. Lagos R. 10. Rodriguez S. 26. Serna K.	12. Cordano R. (G) 3. Anderson Jesus 10. Bruno Savio 6. Granell A. 80. Melgar C. A. 44. Orihuela R. 8. Paz L. 17. Rodriguez P. 26. Saavedra E. 27. Vaca H. 33. Vaca Moreno E.
Substitutes
15. Castillo J. 11. D'Arrigo J. 25. Huaman M. 14. Moyano A. 17. Neira C. 19. Sabbag P. . Sanchez G. 32. Saravia F. (G) 31. Vilchez Y. 41. Yllescas J.	16. Arroyo D. 35. Campos D. 25. Coronado Corcuy R. D. (G) 14. Freita E. 28. Mendez 30. Uzeda J. 7. Villarroel M. 13. Viviani L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
2', 1 - 0, Lagos R. ⚽,
6', 2 - 0, De Santis J. ⚽,
37', 2 - 1, Vaca H. ⚽,
40', 2 - 2, Bruno Savio ⚽,
44', Fuentes A. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Barcos H. ↓, Huaman M. ↑,
52', 🟨,
61', Cordano R. 🟥,
70', Cabellos C. 🟥,
73', De Santis J. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
80', Serna K. ↓, Sabbag P. ↑,
88', 2 - 3, Bruno Savio ⚽,
90+2', Lagos R. ↓, Neira C. ↑,

Preview

Recent matches Alianza Lima is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Bolívar is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Alianza Lima is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Lima
Copa Libertadores
29.05.24	Fluminense - Alianza Lima	3:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
24.05.24	Cusco - Alianza Lima	3:0 ✺
19.05.24	Alianza Lima - Deportivo Garcilaso	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.05.24	Alianza Lima - Colo-Colo	1:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
11.05.24	Sport Huancayo - Alianza Lima	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLWTW
- Bolívar La Paz
Copa Libertadores
28.05.24	Bolívar - Palestino	3:1 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
25.05.24	Bolívar - Real Santa Cruz	4:0 ✺
22.05.24	Aurora - Bolívar	1:1 ✺
19.05.24	Bolívar - Real Tomayapo	4:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.05.24	Flamengo - Bolívar	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWTWL

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