Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 29 May 2024, Wednesday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Portugal	Sport TV2


	Fluminense		Alianza Lima

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.1	6	Watch
	1.53	4.2	5.5
	1.55	4.3	5.45	Watch
	1.57	4.35	5.8
	1.56	4.36	5.75
	1.44	4.2	5.8	Watch
	1.57	4.35	5.72	Watch
	1.53	4.1	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.47)	4.25 ↑ (4.09)	5.68 ↓ (7.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
61.2%

Draw
22.2%

Alianza Lima
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64%

22.9%

13.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.6%

22.1%

13.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	9.1%	27.3%

Fluminense - Alianza Lima Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Fluminense will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Alianza Lima will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fluminense: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (G) 23. Guga 8. Martinelli 30. Felipe Melo (C) 12. Marcelo 45. Lima 5. Alexsander 21. Arias J. 9. John Kennedy 11. Keno 14. Cano G.	32. Saravia F. (G) 6. Garces R. 5. Zambrano C. (C) 2. Freytes J. 7. Zanelatto F. 27. Cabellos C. 22. Arregui A. 15. Castillo J. 13. Lagos R. 26. Serna K. 30. Waterman C.
Substitutes
25. Antonio Carlos 31. Calegari 80. David Terans 6. Diogo Barbosa 90. Douglas Costa 27. Felipe Alves (G) 19. Kaua Elias 4. Marlon 77. Marquinhos 10. PH Ganso 20. Renato Augusto 29. Thiago Santos	4. Amasifuen N. 21. Aranda S. 9. Barcos H. 11. D'Arrigo J. 12. De la Cruz A. (G) 18. De Santis J. 20. Fuentes A. 24. Guzman V. 25. Huaman M. 14. Moyano A. 17. Neira C. 31. Vilchez Y.
Coaches
Fernando Diniz	Restrepo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Arregui A. ⚽, Lagos R. (A),
32', Felipe Melo 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Alexsander ↓, PH Ganso ↑,
46', Felipe Melo ↓, Marlon ↑,
46', Guga ↓, Marquinhos ↑,
47', 1 - 1, Keno ⚽,
50', 1 - 2, Serna K. ⚽, Zanelatto F. (A),
52', 2 - 2, Marcelo ⚽, Cano G. (A),
58', Marcelo 🟨,
60', Martinelli 🟨,
60', Arregui A. 🟨,
75', Cano G. ↓, Renato Augusto ↑,
76', PH Ganso 🟨,
77', Waterman C. ↓, Barcos H. ↑,
79', Keno ↓, Douglas Costa ↑,
81', 3 - 2, John Kennedy ⚽, Arias J. (A),
83', Lagos R. ↓, De Santis J. ↑,
83', Arregui A. ↓, Guzman V. ↑,
90+1', Castillo J. ↓, Fuentes A. ↑,
90+2', John Kennedy 🟨,
90+4', Marquinhos 🟨,

Preview

Fluminense is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Fluminense is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Alianza Lima is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fluminense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Fluminense is indisputable favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Fluminense won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Copa do Brasil
22.05.24	Fluminense - Sampaio Corrêa	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
16.05.24	Fluminense - Cerro Porteño	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
13.05.24	São Paulo - Fluminense	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.05.24	Colo-Colo - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.05.24	Fluminense - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWLWT
- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
24.05.24	Cusco - Alianza Lima	3:0 ✺
19.05.24	Alianza Lima - Deportivo Garcilaso	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.05.24	Alianza Lima - Colo-Colo	1:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
11.05.24	Sport Huancayo - Alianza Lima	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.05.24	Alianza Lima - Cerro Porteño	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
03.04.24	Alianza Lima - Fluminense	1:1

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