Match Info

Date: 5 March 2020, Thursday


	Alianza Lima		Nacional

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.9	2.5	Watch
	3	2.9	2.55
	2.85	3	2.55
	3.02	2.79	2.44
	3.14	2.98	2.56
	3.2	2.9	2.5
	3.1	2.93	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↑ (2.9)	2.91 ↓ (2.96)	2.52 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Lima
30.6%

Draw
32.2%

Nacional
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

31.6%

36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

23.1%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+13.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alianza Lima, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nacional, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Alianza Lima - Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Alianza Lima will win (votes: 6 - 20%). Nacional will win (votes: 18 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 42.5% – 77.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
28.02.20	Alianza Lima - Deportivo Municipal	1:0 ✺
23.02.20	Ayacucho - Alianza Lima	2:0 ✺
15.02.20	Alianza Lima - Atlético Grau	1:0 ✺
09.02.20	Carlos A. Mannucci - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
31.01.20	Alianza Lima - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLWTL
- Atletico Nacional
Portuguese Liga 2
29.02.20	Penafiel - Nacional	1:1 ✺
23.02.20	Nacional - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.02.20	Nacional - Cerro Largo	2:2 ✺
16.02.20	Rentistas - Nacional	2:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
15.02.20	Nacional - Vilafranquense	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TWTLW

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