The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Alianza Lima 68.4%
Draw 20.7%
Alianza Atlético 10.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
67%
21.3%
11.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
62.2%
19.8%
12.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)
Alianza Atlético has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-6.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alianza Lima that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Atlético than the current prediction. (+1.7%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
66.7%
16.7%
16.7%
Alianza Lima - Alianza Atlético Predictions
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Alianza Lima will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Alianza Atlético will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Duarte A. (G) 17. Advincula L. 6. Garces R. 3. Antoni M. 13. Huaman M. 5. Pavez E. 7. Gaibor F. 20. Velez J. 99. Girotti F. 8. Castillo E. 34. Paolo Guerrero (C)
31. Rivadeneyra S. (G) 21. Perleche E. 2. Suarez R. 25. Guzman W. 24. Gordillo A. 15. Lupu H. (C) 10. Diaz G. 11. Larios Saavedra G. A. 22. del Castillo J. 17. Penilla C. 27. Ingratti J.
Substitutes
29. Archimbaud J. 11. Cantero A. 15. Castillo J. 4. Chavez G. 12. De la Cruz A. (G) 2. Diaz N. 25. Gentile G. 30. Motta G. 22. Neira C.
16. Fernandez S. 8. Flores F. 6. Lujan J. 19. Mendieta J. 29. Molina J. 23. Munoz A. 20. Perez J. 95. Prieto D. (G) 77. Valladolid C.
Coaches
Guede P.
Urciuoli F.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 1 - 0, Castillo E. ⚽, Velez J. (A),
28', 1 - 1, Ingratti J. ⚽,
32', Paolo Guerrero 🟨,
40', Larios Saavedra G. A. 🟨,
45', Garces R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
51', 2 - 1, Guzman W. (Own goal),
57', Guzman W. 🟥,
66', del Castillo J. ↓, Munoz A. ↑,
70', Paolo Guerrero ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
73', Larios Saavedra G. A. ↓, Molina J. ↑,
79', 3 - 1, Velez J. ⚽, Cantero A. (A),
80', Munoz A. 🟨,
83', Penilla C. ↓, Flores F. ↑,
83', Ingratti J. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
83', Diaz G. ↓, Lujan J. ↑,
84', Castillo E. ↓, Archimbaud J. ↑,
90+1', Gaibor F. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
90+1', Garces R. ↓, Diaz N. ↑,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza Lima won 1.
Recent form of Alianza Lima has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Alianza Atlético is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Alianza Lima may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Alianza Lima is the obvious favorite.
There will not play in Alianza Lima: Ramos L.
(Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alianza Lima won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:19. (average 1.3:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Alianza Lima won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:6. (average 1.7:0.7).
Peru
Usa
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Duarte A. (G) 
Antoni M. 
Pavez E. 
Gaibor F. 
Girotti F. 
Molina J. 
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