Match Info

Date: 26 September 2022, Monday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima)


	Alianza Lima		Universidad San Martín

	1	X	2
	1.22	7	11	Watch
	1.19	5.75	11.5
	1.18	6	13
	1.2	5.8	11
	1.17	6.95	18.05
	1.18	5.5	13	Watch
	1.18	6.55	14.25	Watch
	1.2	5.8	11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.19 ↓ (1.38)	6.17 ↑ (4.5)	12.85 ↑ (7.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Network on TV: GolTV (Spanish)

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Lima
77.8%

Draw
15%

Universidad San Martín
7.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.1%

20.6%

12.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.4%

19.6%

11.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alianza Lima's performance.

Universidad San Martín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Universidad San Martín might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alianza Lima that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad San Martín than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.9%	5.3%	15.8%

Alianza Lima - Universidad San Martín Predictions

Users Predictions: Alianza Lima will win (15 of 19 users predict this - 78.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 60.62% – 97.28%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Alianza Lima won 4.

Alianza Lima is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Universidad San Martín has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Universidad San Martín could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Alianza Lima have a series of home games.

In this match Alianza Lima is absolute favorite.

Last 26 head-to-head matches Alianza Lima won 14 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 44-31.

Including matches at home between the teams Alianza Lima won 8 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 26-15.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
21.09.22	Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar	2:0 ✺
18.09.22	Carlos Stein - Alianza Lima	1:2 ✺
10.09.22	Alianza Lima - Cantolao	0:0 ✺
04.09.22	Alianza Lima - Universitario de Deportes	0:2 ✺
28.08.22	Cajamarca - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWTLT
- Universidad San Martín
Peruvian Liga 1
18.09.22	Universidad San Martín - Cajamarca	1:5 ✺
12.09.22	Sport Huancayo - Universidad San Martín	3:2 ✺
26.08.22	FBC Melgar - Universidad San Martín	2:1 ✺
21.08.22	Universidad San Martín - Sporting Cristal	1:2 ✺
13.08.22	Carlos A. Mannucci - Universidad San Martín	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
09.05.22	Universidad San Martín - Alianza Lima	0:1
08.08.21	Universidad San Martín - Alianza Lima	0:2
13.10.20	Alianza Lima - Universidad San Martín	0:1
13.10.19	Universidad San Martín - Alianza Lima	2:3
28.04.19	Alianza Lima - Universidad San Martín	1:0
21.11.18	Universidad San Martín - Alianza Lima	1:1
05.08.18	Alianza Lima - Universidad San Martín	3:1

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