Match Info

Date: 21 August 2022, Sunday

Location: Estadio San Martin de Porres (Lima)


	Universidad San Martín		Sporting Cristal

	1	X	2
	11	5	1.3	Watch
	7.25	4.75	1.32
	9	4.6	1.32
	7.4	4.8	1.32
	9.09	4.78	1.37
	8	4.6	1.32	Watch
	7.9	4.95	1.35	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.52 ↑ (6.51)	4.78 ↑ (4.19)	1.33 ↓ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad San Martín
10.9%

Draw
19.4%

Sporting Cristal
69.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.3%

22.2%

63.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.2%

22%

64.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad San Martín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Sporting Cristal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sporting Cristal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad San Martín than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Cristal than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sporting Cristal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	15.4%	69.2%

Universidad San Martín - Sporting Cristal Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Uni San Martín will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Sporting Cristal will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting Cristal: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 18 and 3).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Universidad San Martín won 0.

Universidad San Martín is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Sporting Cristal is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Sporting Cristal is indisputable favorite.

Last 30 head-to-head matches Universidad San Martín won 4 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 20 matches and goals 21-59.

Including matches at home between the teams Universidad San Martín won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 12-24.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad San Martín
Peruvian Liga 1
13.08.22	Carlos A. Mannucci - Universidad San Martín	3:2 ✺
06.08.22	Universidad San Martín - Alianza Atlético	1:0 ✺
31.07.22	Atlético Grau - Universidad San Martín	1:0 ✺
27.07.22	Universidad San Martín - Ayacucho	3:3 ✺
23.07.22	Sport Boys - Universidad San Martín	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LWLTL
- Sporting Cristal
Peruvian Liga 1
13.08.22	Sporting Cristal - Carlos Stein	3:2 ✺
06.08.22	Cantolao - Sporting Cristal	2:2 ✺
31.07.22	Sporting Cristal - Alianza Lima	0:0 ✺
26.07.22	Cajamarca - Sporting Cristal	0:2 ✺
17.07.22	FBC Melgar - Sporting Cristal	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
01.04.22	Sporting Cristal - Universidad San Martín	4:1
03.09.21	Sporting Cristal - Universidad San Martín	1:1
30.05.21	Sporting Cristal - Universidad San Martín	2:0 ET
07.11.20	Universidad San Martín - Sporting Cristal	0:2
09.09.20	Sporting Cristal - Universidad San Martín	2:0
27.10.19	Universidad San Martín - Sporting Cristal	1:1
13.05.19	Sporting Cristal - Universidad San Martín	4:0

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