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Current Win Probability
Alianza Lima 55.3%
Draw 26.7%
FBC Melgar 18%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
57.4%
25.8%
16.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
59.2%
25%
16.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)
FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+3.9%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-1.6%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
100%
0%
0%
Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Alianza Lima will win
(10 of 10 users predict this - 100%). Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alianza Lima will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Duarte A. (G) 17. Advincula L. 3. Antoni M. 6. Garces R. 13. Huaman M. 20. Velez J. 5. Pavez E. 7. Gaibor F. 11. Cantero A. 34. Paolo Guerrero (C) 27. Quevedo K.
12. Caceda C. (G) 4. Ramos A. 33. Lazo M. 90. Jesus Alcantar 45. Zegarra M. 6. Salas J. 77. Zanelatto F. 24. Tandazo W. 10. Quagliata N. 11. Vidales J. 9. Cuesta B. (C)
Substitutes
55. Aquino P. 31. Carbajal C. 21. Cari P. 15. Castillo J. 4. Chavez G. 12. De la Cruz A. (G) 25. Gentile G. 99. Girotti F. 9. Ramos L.
27. Cabanillas N. 21. Cabezudo J. (G) 80. D'Arrigo J. 5. Deneumostier A. 17. De Santis J. 22. Erustes P. 23. Escobar J. 18. Figueroa N. 14. Gamero Y.
Coaches
Guede P.
Reynoso J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
21', Salas J. 🟨,
23', Advincula L. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Paolo Guerrero ⚽,
44', 1 - 1, Vidales J. (Penalty Awarded),
45+1', Antoni M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Lazo M. ↓, Escobar J. ↑,
46', Cuesta B. ↓, Erustes P. ↑,
58', Salas J. ↓, De Santis J. ↑,
64', De Santis J. 🟨,
66', 2 - 1, Velez J. ⚽, Cantero A. (A),
71', Cantero A. 🟨,
75', Zanelatto F. ↓, D'Arrigo J. ↑,
78', Cantero A. ↓, Cari P. ↑,
78', Quevedo K. ↓, Gentile G. ↑,
84', 3 - 1, Garces R. ⚽, Velez J. (A),
86', Paolo Guerrero ↓, Girotti F. ↑,
86', Gaibor F. ↓, Aquino P. ↑,
90', Velez J. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
90', Vidales J. ↓, Figueroa N. ↑,
Preview
One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 and 6).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza Lima won 1.
Alianza Lima is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
In recent matches, Melgar has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Melgar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Alianza Lima is a strong favorite.
There will not play in Alianza Lima: Archimbaud J.
(Knee Injury)
Castillo E.
(Red Card)
Castillo J.
(Injury)
Viscarra G.
(Muscle Injury)
There will not play in Melgar: Guzman L.
(Red Card)
There are questionable in Melgar: Orzan H.
(Muscle Injury)
We predict that Alianza Lima will win today's game, with odds of 1.61.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alianza Lima won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 29:23. (average 1.5:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Alianza Lima won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:10. (average 1.5:1).
Peru
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Duarte A. (G) 
Antoni M. 
Velez J. 
Pavez E. 
Cantero A. 
Jesus Alcantar 
De Santis J. 
Escobar J. 
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