Match Info

CONCACAF Central American Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Cuscatlán (San Salvador)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Alianza San Miguel		Motagua

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.30	3.20	2.65
	2.30	3.25	2.65
	2.43	3.41	2.71
	2.34	3.54	2.78	Watch
	2.2	3.3	2.65
	2.28	3.3	2.73	Watch
	2.37	3.25	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.7)	3.32 ↓ (3.5)	2.7 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza San Miguel
39.1%

Draw
27.3%

Motagua
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

26.4%

39.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34%

26.3%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza San Miguel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Motagua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Motagua might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza San Miguel than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alianza San Miguel that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motagua than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Motagua could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Alianza San Miguel - Motagua Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Alianza will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Motagua will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Gonzalez M. (G) 14. Parra W. 16. Romero H. (C) 23. Monteagudo J. 19. Rodriguez Arias N. A. 10. Menjivar L. 6. Orellana N. 8. Osorio H. 11. Portillo J. 7. Mier M. 9. Gustavo Souza	22. Ortiz L. (G) 35. Melendez C. (C) 34. Sacaza G. 4. Vega L. 17. Portillo J. 5. Discua O. 23. Reyes A. 27. Macias J. 8. Melendez D. 21. Batiz J. 19. De Olivera R.
Substitutes
24. Aguirre M. 18. Barreto J. 17. Castillo F. 15. Flores W. 31. Franco D. (G) 41. Guardado Ardon E. R. 20. Henriquez A. 29. Hernandez E. 1. Joya M. (G) 26. Rivera N. 56. Romero D. 45. Tobar L.	14. Barrios A. 3. Cacho P. 26. Crisanto L. 24. Garcia J. 10. Gomez R. 15. Hernandez A. 25. Licona M. (G) 36. Marinacci V. 30. Miranda J. 9. Moya J. 80. Oliva D. 16. Palma C.
Coaches
Pompei R.	Lopez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Romero H. 🟨,
27', Melendez C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Batiz J. ↓, Miranda J. ↑,
57', Melendez C. ↓, Crisanto L. ↑,
61', Portillo J. ↓, Romero D. ↑,
62', Orellana N. ↓, Rivera N. ↑,
65', Crisanto L. 🟨,
69', De Olivera R. ↓, Moya J. ↑,
69', Melendez D. ↓, Gomez R. ↑,
73', Mier M. ↓, Tobar L. ↑,
85', Portillo J. ↓, Marinacci V. ↑,
87', Gustavo Souza ↓, Castillo F. ↑,
87', Rodriguez Arias N. A. ↓, Henriquez A. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 0-3.

Recent performances by Alianza have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Motagua is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Motagua may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Alianza has had a series of away games.

Motagua will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:9. (average 0.5:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Alianza won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Alianza San Miguel - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 34.24%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza San Miguel
CONCACAF Central American Cup
09.09.26	Motagua - Alianza San Miguel	3:0 ✺
El Salvador Primera Division
06.09.26	Águila - Alianza San Miguel	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	Alianza San Miguel - Atlético Balboa	2:0 ✺
26.08.26	Platense Municipal Zacatecoluca - Alianza San Miguel	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Isidro Metapán - Alianza San Miguel	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTWTL
- CD Motagua
Honduras Liga Nacional
12.09.26	Motagua - Génesis PN	1:0 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
09.09.26	Motagua - Alianza San Miguel	3:0 ✺
Honduras Liga Nacional
05.09.26	Atlético Independiente - Motagua	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Motagua - Olancho	2:1 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
25.08.26	Municipal - Motagua	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

CONCACAF Central American Cup
09.09.26	Motagua - Alianza San Miguel	3:0
CONCACAF League
04.11.20	Alianza San Miguel - Motagua	1:2 penalties
31.10.19	Motagua - Alianza San Miguel	3:0
24.10.19	Alianza San Miguel - Motagua	1:1

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