Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 17

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau (Valledupar)

Referee: Montano W. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Alianza Valledupar		Independiente Medellín

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.3	2.2	Watch
	3.05	3.25	2.28	Watch
	3.18	3.39	2.36
	3.15	3.41	2.21	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.2
	3.24	3.29	2.19	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.16 ↑ (2.89)	3.29 ↓ (3.31)	2.24 ↓ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Valledupar
29.7%

Draw
28.5%

Independiente Medellín
41.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

28.2%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

27.7%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Valledupar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Medellín Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Alianza will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Ind Medellín will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wallens J. (G) 16. Rosales Y. 3. Moreno K. 5. Franco P. (C) 23. Viveros J. 14. Villegas C. 27. Londono Y. 10. Fernandez W. 15. Esparragoza C. 8. Munoz J. 26. Martinez M.	25. Chaux E. (G) 2. Chaverra L. 24. Ortiz J. 33. Londono D. 18. Fabra F. 16. Loboa H. 8. Serna A. 26. Mena Perea E. 10. Catano D. 20. Montano J. 19. Fydriszewski F. (C)
Substitutes
12. Beltran E. (G) 21. Cantillo F. 29. Lucumi C. 6. Meza Mercado E. W. 24. Nieto S. 17. Pardo F. 25. Perez Balcazar J. E. 4. Perez E. 20. Valencia L.	13. Chaverra F. 5. Escorcia L. 1. Ichazo S. (G) 21. Mena J. 31. Moreno D. 30. Palacios H. 14. Perlaza B. 15. Segura N. 11. Yony Gonzalez
Coaches
Ayala C.	Restrepo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', Serna A. 🟨,
26', Martinez M. 🟨,
36', Munoz J. 🟨,
36', Chaverra L. 🟨,
37', Ortiz J. 🟥,
42', 0 - 1, Fydriszewski F. ⚽, Montano J. (A),
45+3', Fernandez W. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Serna A. ↓, Escorcia L. ↑,
46', Chaverra L. ↓, Perlaza B. ↑,
46', Fernandez W. ↓, Cantillo F. ↑,
46', Moreno K. ↓, Valencia L. ↑,
46', Esparragoza C. 🟨,
58', Catano D. ↓, Palacios H. ↑,
66', Martinez M. ↓, Pardo F. ↑,
66', Munoz J. ↓, Lucumi C. ↑,
74', Villegas C. ↓, Perez Balcazar J. E. ↑,
76', Montano J. ↓, Chaverra F. ↑,
83', Chaverra F. 🟨,
84', 🟨,
89', Chaux E. 🟨,
90', Loboa H. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 17 and 15)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Ind Medellín may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ind Medellín might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 23:34. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Alianza won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:9. (average 1.5:0.9).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Ind. Medellin	12	6	2	4	19:16	3	20
15	Alianza	13	3	3	7	14:26	-12	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Valledupar
Colombian Primera A
12.04.26	Inter Bogotá - Alianza Valledupar	2:1 ✺
06.04.26	Deportivo Pereira - Alianza Valledupar	2:3 ✺
01.04.26	Alianza Valledupar - Deportivo Pasto	0:0 ✺
27.03.26	Rionegro Águilas - Alianza Valledupar	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Alianza Valledupar - Deportivo Cali	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWTLW
- Independiente Medellín
Copa Libertadores
16.04.26	Flamengo - Independiente Medellín	4:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
11.04.26	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional	2:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.04.26	Independiente Medellín - Estudiantes La Plata	1:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
02.04.26	Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
30.03.26	Independiente Medellín - América de Cali	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
13.07.25	Independiente Medellín - Alianza Valledupar	1:1
26.01.25	Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Medellín	1:1
10.10.24	Independiente Medellín - Alianza Valledupar	2:0
24.02.24	Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Medellín	2:0
20.08.23	Independiente Medellín - Alianza Valledupar	2:1
26.02.23	Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Medellín	0:1
30.09.22	Independiente Medellín - Alianza Valledupar	3:1

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