The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Alianza Valledupar 39.7%
Draw 32.3%
Deportivo Pasto 28%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
33.7%
30.8%
35.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
34%
31.1%
35.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alianza Valledupar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alianza Valledupar's performance.
Deportivo Pasto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportivo Pasto might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (-5.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alianza Valledupar that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Pasto than the current prediction. (+7.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportivo Pasto could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
20%
40%
40%
Alianza Valledupar - Deportivo Pasto Predictions
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Alianza will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Deportivo Pasto will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%). Confidence interval (95%) for Deportivo Pasto: 9.6% – 70.4%.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
AH -0.25 - Alianza (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alianza (votes: 1 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Wallens J. (G) 16. Rosales Y. 22. Figueroa J. 5. Franco P. (C) 23. Viveros J. 7. Castillo J. 33. Lasso J. 17. Pardo F. 21. Cantillo F. 10. Fernandez W. 29. Lucumi C.
12. Banguera G. (C) 3. Jimenez M. S. 2. Torijano F. 5. Gil N. 21. Velasco E. 15. Mancilla H. 8. Serje Orozco E. C. 27. Goyes H. 32. Pisano M. 7. Perlaza J. 11. Estupinan A.
Substitutes
11. Aponza Cantonil S. A. 24. Banguero E. 15. Esparragoza C. 27. Londono Y. 26. Martinez M. 3. Moreno K. 8. Munoz J. 25. Perez Balcazar J. E. 13. Simancas A. (G) 20. Valencia L.
17. Bernal J. 10. Chavez D. 33. Garavito M. 16. Gil M. 23. Goez Y. 1. Herrerin I. (G) 28. Preciado P. 22. Tolosa Y. 26. Valencia H.
Coaches
Ayala C.
Risueno J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Banguera G. 🟨,
28', Cantillo F. 🟨,
38', Lucumi C. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Jimenez M. S. ↓, Garavito M. ↑,
59', Mancilla H. ↓, Goez Y. ↑,
65', Fernandez W. ↓, Esparragoza C. ↑,
65', Pardo F. ↓, Munoz J. ↑,
65', Lasso J. ↓, Banguero E. ↑,
74', Rosales Y. 🟨,
75', Perlaza J. ↓, Gil M. ↑,
75', Goyes H. ↓, Chavez D. ↑,
77', Castillo J. 🟨,
78', Cantillo F. ↓, Londono Y. ↑,
82', Castillo J. 🟨,
85', Pisano M. 🟨,
88', Serje Orozco E. C. ↓, Preciado P. ↑,
90+3', Garavito M. 🟨,
Preview
An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 1.
Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
Alianza may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 23:25. (average 1.2:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Alianza won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.5:1.1).
Standings
Clausura
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
15
Alianza
13
3
3
7
14:26
-12
12
18
Dep. Pasto
12
2
3
7
9:18
-9
9
Last Results with these Odds
Alianza Valledupar - the odds 2.77 are the expected chance of winning is 33.7%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.
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Wallens J. (G) 
Fernandez W. 
Pisano M. 
Bernal J. 
Gil M. 
Herrerin I. (G) 
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