The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Deportivo Pereira 27.5%
Draw 31.6%
Alianza Valledupar 41%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
35.1%
31.4%
33.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
36.3%
32.5%
32.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Deportivo Pereira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo Pereira's form might have worsened.
Alianza Valledupar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alianza Valledupar's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Pereira than the current prediction. (+8.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportivo Pereira, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (-8.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alianza Valledupar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Pereira will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Alianza will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%). Confidence interval (95%) for Pereira: 9.6% – 70.4%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Mosquera J. (G) 20. Monroy J. 11. Largacha J. 2. Urrea S. 16. Moreno Gomez E. A. 25. Delgado F. 21. Pacheco W. (C) 5. Bermudez Correa J. A. 3. Rengifo N. 10. Acosta S. 88. Quinones Y.
1. Wallens J. (G) 24. Banguero E. 3. Moreno K. 5. Franco P. (C) 23. Viveros J. 25. Perez Balcazar J. E. 10. Fernandez W. 15. Esparragoza C. 21. Cantillo F. 26. Martinez M. 8. Munoz J.
Substitutes
19. Aguirre M. 12. Betancourth J. (G) 30. Bovone T. 31. Diaz M. 13. Morales J. 37. Moreno L. 8. Mosquera F. 29. Renteria R. 24. Urrea J.
12. Beltran E. (G) 27. Londono Y. 30. Mosquera J. 17. Pardo F. 4. Perez E. 16. Rosales Y. 20. Valencia L.
Coaches
Reyes A.
Ayala C.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 2)
13', 0 - 1, Munoz J. ⚽, Fernandez W. (A),
45+3', 0 - 2, Martinez M. ⚽, Franco P. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Monroy J. ↓, Mosquera F. ↑,
46', Acosta S. ↓, Diaz M. ↑,
46', Moreno Gomez E. A. ↓, Renteria R. ↑,
48', 1 - 2, Renteria R. ⚽, Largacha J. (A),
63', Viveros J. ↓, Rosales Y. ↑,
63', 2 - 2, Quinones Y. (Penalty Awarded),
70', Munoz J. ↓, Londono Y. ↑,
70', Martinez M. ↓, Pardo F. ↑,
78', Pardo F. 🟨,
79', Largacha J. ↓, Bovone T. ↑,
80', Fernandez W. ↓, Valencia L. ↑,
86', Urrea S. 🟨,
90+3', Quinones Y. 🟨,
90+4', 2 - 3, Pardo F. (Penalty Awarded),
90+6', Esparragoza C. 🟨,
90+6', Bermudez Correa J. A. ↓, Urrea J. ↑,
90+6', Moreno K. 🟨,
Preview
This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 20 and 18).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pereira won 2.
Pereira is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Alianza has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Alianza may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Alianza could have a small edge in this match.
In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Pereira won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 0.9:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Pereira won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 0.8:1).
Standings
Clausura
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
15
Alianza
13
3
3
7
14:26
-12
12
19
Pereira
12
1
6
5
7:17
-10
9
Last Results with these Odds
Alianza Valledupar - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 33.44%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.
Colombia
South-america
Usa
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Mosquera J. (G) 
Monroy J. 
Fernandez W. 
Bovone T. 
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