Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 24

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: UD Almería Stadium (Almería)

Referee: Ojaos A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	Disney+
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, Movistar Plus+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Almería		Ceuta

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.6	4.5	Watch
	1.75	3.55	4.25	Watch
	1.84	3.92	4.38
	1.73	3.92	4.57	Watch
	1.75	3.6	4.2
	1.78	3.66	4.58	Watch
	1.75	3.8	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.62)	3.72 ↓ (3.89)	4.4 ↓ (5.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almería
53.4%

Draw
25.2%

Ceuta
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

24.1%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

23.3%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	7.1%	21.4%

Almería - Ceuta Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Almería will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Ceuta will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Almería: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Almería will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fernandez A. (G) 16. Luna M. 4. Monte N. 18. Bonini F. 3. Munoz A. 6. Horta A. 29. Dzodic S. 12. Leo Baptistao (C) 11. Arribas S. 7. Morcillo J. 24. de la Fuente M.	13. Vallejo G. (G) 23. Anuar 6. Hernandez C. (C) 15. Gonzalez D. 3. Matos Jose 8. Zalazar K. 5. Youness 20. Campana J. 25. Sanchez S. 9. Fernandez Sanchez M. 18. de la Fuente K.
Substitutes
14. Baba I. 20. Centelles A. 22. Chirino D. 23. Embarba A. 8. Gui Guedes 15. Hernandez A. 31. Iribarne B. (G) 13. Martinez F. (G) 2. Puigmal A. 19. Soko P. 9. Thalys	7. Ahmed A. 26. Bassinga A. 14. Bodiger Y. 24. Cantero Y. 4. Caparros A. 27. Domenech M. 12. Illescas M. 22. Kone K. 1. Lopez P. (G) 28. Peri (G) 16. Redruello Nimo C. 10. Rodriguez C.
Coaches
Rubi	Romero J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
17', 1 - 0, Arribas S. (Penalty Awarded),
23', 2 - 0, Leo Baptistao ⚽, Arribas S. (A),
36', 3 - 0, Morcillo J. ⚽,
45+2', 3 - 1, Zalazar K. ⚽,
45+5', Sanchez S. 🟨,
45+6', de la Fuente M. 🟨,
45+6', Campana J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Youness ↓, Ahmed A. ↑,
46', Campana J. ↓, Bodiger Y. ↑,
46', Sanchez S. ↓, Bassinga A. ↑,
57', Leo Baptistao ↓, Embarba A. ↑,
66', de la Fuente M. ↓, Thalys ↑,
66', Horta A. ↓, Gui Guedes ↑,
66', Luna M. ↓, Chirino D. ↑,
71', de la Fuente K. ↓, Kone K. ↑,
74', Morcillo J. ↓, Puigmal A. ↑,
79', 3 - 2, Fernandez Sanchez M. (Penalty Awarded),
82', Dzodic S. 🟨,
84', Matos Jose 🟨,
85', 4 - 2, Embarba A. (Penalty Awarded),
86', Zalazar K. ↓, Illescas M. ↑,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 8 and 10)

Recent form of Almería has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ceuta has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Almería is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Almería: Chumi (Knock) Fidel Cedillo Segura P. (Injury) Lopy D. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Ceuta: Jamelli (Injury) Ortuno J. (Injury) Sanchez M. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Almería won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Almeria	9	7	0	2	16:5	11	21
21	Ceuta	9	1	2	6	8:20	-12	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
25.01.26	Eibar - Almería	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Almería - Deportivo A Coruña	1:2 ✺
10.01.26	Mirandés - Almería	2:2 ✺
03.01.26	Almería - Granada	3:2 ✺
21.12.25	Málaga - Almería	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLTWL
- AD Ceuta
Spanish LaLiga2
26.01.26	Ceuta - Leonesa	3:1 ✺
17.01.26	Ceuta - Valladolid	0:3 ✺
11.01.26	Málaga - Ceuta	2:1 ✺
04.01.26	Ceuta - FC Andorra	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	Real Sociedad B - Ceuta	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
26.11.25	Ceuta - Almería	3:2

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