Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 20

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: UD Almería Stadium (Almería)

Referee: Gonzalez Esteban J. A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Peru	DirecTV Sports
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, LaLiga TV Bar 2, Orange Futbol 2
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Inter


	Almería		Granada

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.6	4.33	Watch
	1.71	3.6	4.33
	1.78	3.55	4.15	Watch
	1.81	3.68	4.35	Watch
	1.8	3.4	4.2
	1.84	3.64	4.46	Watch
	1.8	3.6	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.71)	3.58 ↓ (3.8)	4.31 ↓ (4.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almería
52.3%

Draw
26.1%

Granada
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.3%

24.9%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.8%

26.5%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Granada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Almería, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Granada than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Almería - Granada Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Almería (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Almería will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fernandez A. (G) 22. Chirino D. 4. Monte N. 32. Fidel Cedillo Segura P. 3. Munoz A. 14. Baba I. 8. Gui Guedes 2. Puigmal A. 11. Arribas S. 23. Embarba A. 12. Leo Baptistao	13. Astralaga A. (G) 2. Casadesus P. 5. Lama M. 24. Williams L. 3. Hormigo D. 8. Aleman P. 4. Alcaraz R. (C) 11. Arnaiz J. M. 7. Sola A. 19. Pascual J. 17. Faye S.
Substitutes
20. Centelles A. 29. Dzodic S. 15. Hernandez A. 31. Iribarne B. (G) 26. Kounia H. 16. Luna M. 13. Martinez F. (G) 28. Martin H. 27. Martins L. 36. Perovic M. 24. Robertone L.	10. Bouldini M. 23. Gagnidze L. 34. Garcia I. (G) 32. Haro P. 26. Rodelas S. 20. Ruiz S. 21. Saenz P. 14. Trigueros M.
Coaches
Rubi	Rojo Martin J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
25', 1 - 0, Gui Guedes ⚽, Arribas S. (A),
29', Gui Guedes 🟨,
40', 1 - 1, Aleman P. ⚽, Alcaraz R. (A),
41', Alcaraz R. 🟨,
45+1', Fidel Cedillo Segura P. ↓, Dzodic S. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Gui Guedes ↓, Centelles A. ↑,
54', Casadesus P. 🟨,
60', Dzodic S. 🟨,
62', Puigmal A. ↓, Robertone L. ↑,
62', Casadesus P. ↓, Saenz P. ↑,
64', 2 - 1, Leo Baptistao ⚽,
74', 3 - 1, Dzodic S. ⚽, Embarba A. (A),
75', Faye S. ↓, Rodelas S. ↑,
76', Trigueros M. 🟨,
76', Alcaraz R. ↓, Trigueros M. ↑,
77', Hormigo D. ↓, Ruiz S. ↑,
77', Chirino D. 🟨,
84', Aleman P. ↓, Bouldini M. ↑,
85', Arnaiz J. M. 🟨,
86', Arribas S. ↓, Luna M. ↑,
86', Leo Baptistao ↓, Kounia H. ↑,
90+8', Robertone L. 🟨,
90+9', 3 - 2, Pascual J. (Penalty Awarded),
90+11', Saenz P. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 19 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Almería won 2.

Almería has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Granada's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Almería is the team to beat.

There will not play in Almería: Bonini F. (Hamstring Injury) Clua S. (Injury) Melamed N. (Muscle Injury) Robertone L. (Muscle Injury) Soko P. (International duty)

There will not play in Granada: Hongla M. (Injury) Naasei O. (Yellow Cards) Zidane L. (International duty)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Almería won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:14. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Almería won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:5. (average 2:0.7).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga2 for now

Almeria: 14.77% Granada CF: 2.01%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Almeria	8	6	0	2	13:5	8	18
9	Granada CF	8	3	2	3	13:13	0	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
21.12.25	Málaga - Almería	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Almería - Burgos	1:2 ✺
06.12.25	FC Andorra - Almería	1:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
03.12.25	Eldense - Almería	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
29.11.25	Almería - Huesca	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLT
- Granada CF
Spanish LaLiga2
21.12.25	Granada - Albacete Balompié	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Sporting de Gijón - Granada	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Granada - Ceuta	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.12.25	Tenerife - Granada	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
29.11.25	Leonesa - Granada	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
05.04.25	Granada - Almería	3:1
30.11.24	Almería - Granada	2:1
Spanish LaLiga
18.02.24	Granada - Almería	1:1
01.10.23	Almería - Granada	3:3
Club Friendly
05.08.23	Granada - Almería	0:1
29.07.19	Granada - Almería	1:0
Spanish LaLiga2
17.03.19	Almería - Granada	0:0

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