Match Info

LaLiga2 - Promotion - Play Offs - Final

Date: 20 June 2026, Saturday

Location: UD Almería Stadium (Almería)

Referee: Muniz C. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Almería		Málaga

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.30	3.30	Watch
	2.10	3.20	3.30
	2.10	3.45	3.10	Watch
	2.21	3.34	3.62
	2.16	3.37	3.35	Watch
	2.10	3.10	3.30
	2.14	3.29	3.54	Watch
	2.17	3.55	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.2)	3.33 ↓ (3.45)	3.31 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almería
43.7%

Draw
28.1%

Málaga
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

26.6%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

26.9%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Málaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Almería than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.5%	34.8%	8.7%

Almería - Málaga Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Almería will win (votes: 13 - 56.5%). Málaga will win (votes: 2 - 8.7%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 34.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Almería: 36.2% – 76.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Almería (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Almería (1.51) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Almería (1.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Almería (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fernandez A. (G) 22. Chirino D. 5. Rodrigo Ely 18. Bonini F. 3. Munoz A. 17. Lopy D. 29. Dzodic S. 23. Embarba A. (C) 11. Arribas S. 10. Melamed N. 24. de la Fuente M.	1. Herrero A. (C) 3. Puga C. 16. Murillo D. 20. Montero J. 31. Rafita 10. Larrubia D. 12. Dotor C. 23. Merino I. 11. Munoz J. 22. Lorenzo D. 9. Chupe
Substitutes
14. Baba I. 20. Centelles A. 21. Chumi 8. Gui Guedes 12. Leo Baptistao 16. Luna M. 13. Martinez F. (G) 4. Monte N. 7. Morcillo J. 2. Puigmal A. 19. Soko P. 9. Thalys	7. Abaida H. 5. Brasanac D. 6. Enriquez R. 2. Gabilondo J. 17. Jauregi E. 24. Lobete J. 13. Lopez C. (G) 21. Nino A. 35. Ochoa A. 36. Recio A. 37. Rodriguez R. 18. Sanchez D.
Coaches
Rubi	Funes J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Lopy D. 🟨,
50', Dotor C. 🟨,
53', Murillo D. ↓, Nino A. ↑,
59', Melamed N. ↓, Leo Baptistao ↑,
65', 0 - 1, Chupe ⚽, Munoz J. (A),
66', Chupe 🟨,
71', 0 - 2, Larrubia D. ⚽, Chupe (A),
73', de la Fuente M. ↓, Thalys ↑,
73', Chirino D. ↓, Luna M. ↑,
73', Munoz A. ↓, Morcillo J. ↑,
76', 1 - 2, Leo Baptistao ⚽, Embarba A. (A),
79', Lorenzo D. ↓, Rodriguez R. ↑,
79', Munoz J. ↓, Ochoa A. ↑,
87', Chupe ↓, Brasanac D. ↑,
87', Lopy D. ↓, Puigmal A. ↑,
90+4', Ochoa A. 🟨,
90+4', Thalys 🟥,
90+9', Ochoa A. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-0.

Almería is Qualified for LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs Semi~finals)

Málaga is Qualified for LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs Semi~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Almería won 1.

Almería has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Málaga is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Almería will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Almería: Horta A. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Málaga: Dorrio J. (Muscle Injury) Galilea E. (Injury) Juanpe (Muscle Injury) Luismi (Face Injury) Pastor A. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Almería won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 24:21. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Almería won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:15. (average 1.2:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Almeria	8	6	0	2	13:5	8	18

Last Results with these Odds

Almería - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 41.73%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
14.06.26	Málaga - Almería	0:0 ✺
09.06.26	Almería - Castellón	3:2 ✺
06.06.26	Castellón - Almería	1:1 ✺
31.05.26	Almería - Valladolid	1:0 ✺
24.05.26	Sporting de Gijón - Almería	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TWTWL
- Málaga CF
Spanish LaLiga2
14.06.26	Málaga - Almería	0:0 ✺
10.06.26	Málaga - Las Palmas	1:1 ✺
07.06.26	Las Palmas - Málaga	0:1 ✺
31.05.26	Zaragoza - Málaga	0:2 ✺
24.05.26	Málaga - Racing Santander	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
14.06.26	Málaga - Almería	0:0
19.04.26	Almería - Málaga	3:2
21.12.25	Málaga - Almería	2:1
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Almería - Málaga	1:2
Spanish LaLiga2
01.03.25	Almería - Málaga	2:2
08.12.24	Málaga - Almería	1:1
Club Friendly
27.07.24	Málaga - Almería	0:1

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