Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 29

Date: 9 March 2026, Monday

Location: UD Almería Stadium (Almería)

Referee: Ais S. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	DSports 6
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Canada	TSN+
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Ecuador	DSports 6
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports Start
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Sports 2
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Singapore	beIN Sports 2
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, LaLiga TV Bar 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Turkey	S Sport+
Uruguay	DSports 6
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Almería		Leonesa

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.2	5	Watch
	1.5	4.2	5.25
	1.55	4.25	5.15	Watch
	1.56	4.54	5.59
	1.57	4.44	5.29	Watch
	1.57	4	5
	1.6	4.32	5.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.47)	4.28 ↑ (4.27)	5.23 ↓ (6.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almería
60.2%

Draw
21.9%

Leonesa
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.2%

21.8%

15%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.6%

20.4%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Leonesa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Almería, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leonesa than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.6%	0%	9.4%

Almería - Leonesa Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Almería (1.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Almería (1.86) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Leonesa (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Almería will win (29 of 31 users predict this - 93.55%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.9% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Almería will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Almería (votes: 13 - 92.9%). Leonesa (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fernandez A. (G) 16. Luna M. 4. Monte N. 18. Bonini F. 20. Centelles A. 14. Baba I. 17. Lopy D. 12. Leo Baptistao (C) 11. Arribas S. 7. Morcillo J. 24. de la Fuente M.	13. Badia E. (G) 24. Garcia V. 4. Rodri Suarez (C) 2. Rodriguez P. 21. Hinojo R. 22. Radoja N. 11. Moreno V. 28. Ojeda T. 23. Diallo Selu M. 10. Chacon L. 19. Sobrino R.
Substitutes
22. Chirino D. 21. Chumi 23. Embarba A. 8. Gui Guedes 6. Horta A. 13. Martinez F. (G) 10. Melamed N. 3. Munoz A. 2. Puigmal A. 5. Rodrigo Ely 19. Soko P. 9. Thalys	12. Al Amin H. 1. Banuz M. (G) 36. Barzic M. 14. Bicho 17. Calero I. 7. Collado D. 5. Fornos Q. 8. Gonzalez Y. 9. Justo M. 6. Maestre S. 16. Ribeiro T. 3. Satrustegui E.
Coaches
Rubi	de la Barrera R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Arribas S. ⚽, Lopy D. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
56', Lopy D. 🟨,
56', Ojeda T. 🟨,
56', Diallo Selu M. 🟨,
65', Morcillo J. ↓, Embarba A. ↑,
65', Leo Baptistao ↓, Puigmal A. ↑,
65', Moreno V. ↓, Calero I. ↑,
77', de la Fuente M. ↓, Thalys ↑,
78', 2 - 0, Arribas S. ⚽,
79', Sobrino R. ↓, Justo M. ↑,
79', Diallo Selu M. ↓, Collado D. ↑,
79', Radoja N. ↓, Bicho ↑,
80', Lopy D. ↓, Gui Guedes ↑,
80', Arribas S. ↓, Melamed N. ↑,
86', 3 - 0, Thalys ⚽, Embarba A. (A),
87', Chacon L. ↓, Al Amin H. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Almería is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Leonesa is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Almería is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Almería: Horta A. (Inactive)

There will not play in Leonesa: Ribeiro L. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Almería: Dzodic S. (Injury)

We predict that Almería will win today's game, with odds of 1.47.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Almería won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.3:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Almería won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Almeria	8	6	0	2	13:5	8	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
27.02.26	Albacete Balompié - Almería	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Almería - Córdoba	2:1 ✺
13.02.26	Almería - FC Andorra	3:2 ✺
08.02.26	Cádiz - Almería	1:2 ✺
01.02.26	Almería - Ceuta	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TWWWW
- Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa
Spanish LaLiga2
01.03.26	Leonesa - Las Palmas	0:3 ✺
21.02.26	Leganés - Leonesa	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Leonesa - Zaragoza	0:0 ✺
08.02.26	Málaga - Leonesa	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Leonesa - Deportivo A Coruña	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
24.08.25	Leonesa - Almería	0:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.12.24	Leonesa - Almería	1:2
Spanish LaLiga2
24.02.18	Almería - Leonesa	2:1
29.09.17	Leonesa - Almería	0:0

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