Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 7

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: FC Alverca Sports Complex (Alverca do Ribatejo)

Referee: Filipe L. (Por)


	Alverca		Rio Ave

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.70	4.50	Watch
	1.80	3.60	4.10
	1.80	3.55	4.30	Watch
	1.82	3.74	4.78
	1.89	3.6	4.08	Watch
	1.76	3.70	4.70
	1.79	3.78	4.60	Watch
	1.79	3.60	4.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (2.09)	3.66 ↑ (3.36)	4.42 ↑ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Alverca
52.7%

Draw
25.9%

Rio Ave
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

28.1%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

24.3%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alverca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alverca's performance.

Rio Ave has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rio Ave might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-13.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alverca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rio Ave could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Alverca - Rio Ave Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Alverca will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Rio Ave will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rio Ave (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Matheus Mendes (G) 14. Baseya S. 21. Gomez S. (C) 12. James I. 20. Spencer D. 35. Rayan Lucas 6. Gui D. 55. Chissumba 10. Chiquinho 19. Camara D. 22. Figueiredo	32. Vitor Hugo (G) 20. Tome J. 23. Petrasso F. (C) 3. Garcia S. 24. Amaral P. 44. Nikitscher T. 5. Ntoi A. 7. Diogo Bezerra 79. Patricio M. 30. Galcik R. 11. Blesa J.
Substitutes
4. Bojang Y. 24. Jemide M. 91. Jhonatan Luiz (G) 18. Kassary Z. 26. Matheus Franca 17. Merheg S. J. 8. Moreira V. 11. Nuozzi C. 9. Semedo V. 27. Tamarit T. 7. Vidigal A. 93. Ze Rafael	60. Caike 22. Chamorro K. (G) 80. Clemmensen S. 39. Gustavo Mancha 54. Liavas G. 27. Medina T. 19. Sellouki M. 21. Siler R. 77. Spikic D. 9. Tamble 17. Vrousai M. 70. Wenck A.
Coaches
Ferreira S.	Sylaidopoulos S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Camara D. ⚽, Chiquinho (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Amaral P. ↓, Vrousai M. ↑,
59', Galcik R. ↓, Clemmensen S. ↑,
68', Figueiredo ↓, Vidigal A. ↑,
68', Camara D. ↓, Semedo V. ↑,
69', Patricio M. ↓, Sellouki M. ↑,
71', Nikitscher T. ↓, Caike ↑,
71', Tome J. ↓, Tamble ↑,
74', Chiquinho ↓, Matheus Franca ↑,
84', Chissumba ↓, Bojang Y. ↑,
84', Rayan Lucas ↓, Ze Rafael ↑,
87', Garcia S. 🟨,
88', Gui D. 🟨,
90+4', Vidigal A. 🟨,
90+5', Petrasso F. 🟨,

Preview

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 12th and 16th in the Liga Portugal (Relegation)).

Alverca has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Rio Ave is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Alverca is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Alverca: Abdulai S. (Knee Injury) Martinez J. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Rio Ave: Aguilera Zamora B. (Knee Injury) Miszta C. (Back Injury) Nascimento D. (Inactive) Ryan Guilherme (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Alverca: Meupiyou B. (Injury) Touaizi N. (Injury).

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Alverca has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:6 (averaging 1.3:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Alverca against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 3:4 goals (averaging 1.5:2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9:11	-2	8
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5:15	-10	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Alverca
Liga Portugal
12.09.26	Nacional - Alverca	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Alverca - Braga	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	Alverca - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Sporting Lisbon - Alverca	3:1 ✺
15.08.26	Alverca - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLTLT
- Rio Ave FC
Liga Portugal
14.09.26	Rio Ave - Estrela da Amadora	3:3 ✺
06.09.26	Santa Clara - Rio Ave	4:0 ✺
28.08.26	Rio Ave - Sporting Lisbon	0:4 ✺
22.08.26	Estoril Praia - Rio Ave	0:2 ✺
15.08.26	Rio Ave - Porto	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
04.04.26	Rio Ave - Alverca	1:2
08.11.25	Alverca - Rio Ave	1:1
Taça de Portugal
23.11.24	Alverca - Rio Ave	2:3 penalties
24.11.19	Rio Ave - Alverca	1:0

Upcoming Matches