Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 6

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio da Madeira (Funchal)

Referee: Fonseca M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Brazil	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Nacional		Alverca

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.40	2.40	Watch
	2.75	3.25	2.50
	2.65	3.25	2.60
	2.96	3.28	2.60
	2.92	3.27	2.47	Watch
	2.90	3.20	2.50
	2.90	3.43	2.47	Watch
	2.75	3.30	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.7)	3.3 ↑ (3.25)	2.5 ↓ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
33.4%

Draw
28.7%

Alverca
37.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

29%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

29.3%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Alverca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	60%	0%

Nacional - Alverca Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marin R. (G) 52. Wesley Gasolina 33. Goncalves C. 38. Ze Vitor (C) 21. Kokolo W. 10. Daniel Junior 6. Matheus Dias 8. Baeza M. 11. Gavriel S. 99. Pablo Ruan 7. Jensen M.	31. Matheus Mendes (G) 4. Bojang Y. 21. Gomez S. (C) 12. James I. 20. Spencer D. 6. Gui D. 25. Ian Luccas 55. Chissumba 10. Chiquinho 19. Camara D. 22. Figueiredo
Substitutes
88. Deivison 2. de la Cruz D. I. 20. Djalo M. 14. Fernandes I. 13. Joao Goncalves (G) 15. Labidi C. 23. Mateus Iseppe 50. Medeiros de Freitas K. V. (G) 17. Nava F. 9. Obando A. 26. Silva J. 12. Song Min-Kyu	91. Jhonatan Luiz (G) 15. Julian I. 18. Kassary Z. 26. Matheus Franca 17. Merheg S. J. 11. Nuozzi C. 23. Paulo A. (G) 35. Rayan Lucas 9. Semedo V. 27. Tamarit T. 7. Vidigal A. 93. Ze Rafael
Coaches
Santos A.	Ferreira S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
18', Bojang Y. 🟨,
34', 0 - 1, Chissumba ⚽, Chiquinho (A),
37', 0 - 2, Camara D. ⚽, Spencer D. (A),
42', 0 - 3, Camara D. ⚽, Spencer D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Jensen M. ↓, Song Min-Kyu ↑,
46', Daniel Junior ↓, Djalo M. ↑,
48', Camara D. 🟨,
54', Matheus Dias ↓, Labidi C. ↑,
65', Figueiredo ↓, Vidigal A. ↑,
66', Chiquinho ↓, Matheus Franca ↑,
69', Gavriel S. ↓, Obando A. ↑,
72', Camara D. ↓, Semedo V. ↑,
74', Spencer D. 🟨,
79', Pablo Ruan ↓, Nava F. ↑,
79', Gui D. ↓, Rayan Lucas ↑,
79', James I. ↓, Nuozzi C. ↑,
81', 1 - 3, Djalo M. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Nacional: Ulisses (Broken calfbone)

There will not play in Alverca: Abdulai S. (Knee Injury) Martinez J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Nacional: Jose Gomes (Inactive) Leo Santos (Injury) Nourani M. (Inactive) Soares F. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Alverca: Meupiyou B. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Nacional won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9:11	-2	8
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7:15	-8	4

Last Results with these Odds

Nacional - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 34.91%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
05.09.26	Sporting Lisbon - Nacional	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	Nacional - Estrela da Amadora	2:3 ✺
23.08.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Nacional	1:0 ✺
16.08.26	Nacional - Estoril Praia	2:0 ✺
10.08.26	Santa Clara - Nacional	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LLLWT
- FC Alverca
Liga Portugal
05.09.26	Alverca - Braga	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	Alverca - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Sporting Lisbon - Alverca	3:1 ✺
15.08.26	Alverca - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
09.08.26	Porto - Alverca	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
18.04.26	Nacional - Alverca	1:0
07.12.25	Alverca - Nacional	1:0

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