Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 12

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday

Location: Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense (Trofa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Trofense		Amarante

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.05	1.92
	3.3	2.91	1.99
	3.81	3.36	1.96	Watch
	3.9	2.9	1.91
	3.72	3.24	1.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.7 ↑ (2.66)	3.09 ↑ (2.98)	1.94 ↓ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trofense
24.4%

Draw
29.1%

Amarante
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

30.7%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34%

30.4%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trofense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Trofense's form might have worsened.

Amarante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Amarante's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Trofense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Amarante, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Trofense - Amarante Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Amarante will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Teopisto (G) 89. Nuninho 23. Ribeiro Gomes D. M. 29. Joel 44. Saldanha F. 4. Basto H. 15. Borges F. 6. Daniel J. 78. Ruca 11. Paciencia V. 79. Lopes L.	1. Duarte M. (G) 88. Aguiar E. 4. Filipe J. 22. Vivas S. 6. Almeida F. 8. Zangre A. 5. Innusah H. 28. Pedro R. 80. Ventura 10. Rodrigues D. 23. Saint-Louis J.
Substitutes
18. Diagne O. 19. Diarra M. 10. Feliz 2. Oliveira J. 8. Reko Silva 77. Roka 13. Silva N. (G) 20. Vieira A. 30. Welisson	90. Arome 7. Conceicao M. 13. Flores R. (G) 58. Meireles A. 20. Moreno Tavares Cunha M. 26. Nascimento D. 2. Ribeiro O. 99. Roger 71. Silva R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Basto H. 🟨,
40', Joel ↓, Reko Silva ↑,
41', Reko Silva 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lopes L. ↓, Roka ↑,
46', Borges F. ↓, Feliz ↑,
46', Innusah H. ↓, Arome ↑,
66', Almeida F. 🟨,
70', Almeida F. 🟥,
71', Saint-Louis J. ↓, Moreno Tavares Cunha M. ↑,
74', Paciencia V. ↓, Diarra M. ↑,
90+3', Aguiar E. ↓, Ribeiro O. ↑,
90+3', Ventura ↓, Conceicao M. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Trofense won 1.

Trofense has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Amarante is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Amarante will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Trofense won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Trofense won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.3:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Trofense - the odds 2.66 are the expected chance of winning is 34.34%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Trofense
Portuguese Liga 3
25.04.26	Mafra - Trofense	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Trofense - Varzim	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	União de Santarém - Trofense	0:1 ✺
03.04.26	Trofense - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Trofense - Académica Coimbra	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLWLL
- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 3
26.04.26	Amarante - Belenenses	2:2 ✺
19.04.26	Mafra - Amarante	1:4 ✺
12.04.26	Académica Coimbra - Amarante	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Amarante - Varzim	1:0 ✺
29.03.26	Amarante - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.4 TWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
08.03.26	Amarante - Trofense	1:0
25.01.26	Amarante - Trofense	1:1
02.11.25	Trofense - Amarante	0:1
10.11.24	Trofense - Amarante	1:0
11.08.24	Amarante - Trofense	1:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
14.03.21	Trofense - Amarante	1:0
20.12.20	Amarante - Trofense	0:0

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