Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 2 - Round 27

Date: 14 March 2025, Friday

Location: Stade de la Licorne (Amiens)

Referee: Leleu M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free


	Amiens		Caen

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.1	2.3	Watch
	2.85	3.25	2.4
	3	3.15	2.36
	3.15	3.25	2.44
	3.05	3.16	2.38	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.3
	3.09	3.3	2.45	Watch
	3	3.15	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↑ (2.9)	3.18 ↓ (3.19)	2.37 ↓ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amiens
31.1%

Draw
29.5%

Caen
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

29.4%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

29.1%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amiens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Caen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amiens than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caen than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.8%	21.1%	42.1%

Amiens - Caen Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Amiens will win (votes: 7 - 38.9%). Caen will win (votes: 7 - 38.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Amiens: 16.4% – 61.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gurtner R. (G) 14. Corchia S. 6. Ait Boudlal A. 13. Jaouab M. 20. Kaiboue K. 19. Vita R. 8. Lobry V. 37. Monconduit T. 10. Kandil N. 7. Leautey A. 9. Mafouta L.	1. Mandrea A. (G) 6. M'Vila Y. 29. Thomas R. 5. Moucketou-Moussounda A. 27. Gaudin J. 21. Grandsir S. 25. Sy L. 20. Lebreton N. 17. Kyeremeh G. 24. Benrahou Y. 19. Mendy A.
Substitutes
34. Bakayoko S. 45. Fofana I. 27. Lutin R. 18. Manitu M. 11. Mbaye M. 51. Rafii Y. 16. Sauvage A. (G)	88. Ba Loua A. 10. Brahimi B. 16. Clementia Y. (G) 18. Coulibaly K. 4. Henry V. 14. Rajot L. 61. Traore B.
Coaches
Daf O.	Der Zakarian M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Monconduit T. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Thomas R. ↓, Traore B. ↑,
53', Jaouab M. 🟨,
58', 1 - 0, Leautey A. ⚽, Mafouta L. (A),
65', Benrahou Y. ↓, Brahimi B. ↑,
66', Grandsir S. ↓, Ba Loua A. ↑,
73', 2 - 0, Kandil N. ⚽, Kaiboue K. (A),
75', Kyeremeh G. ↓, Coulibaly K. ↑,
75', Sy L. ↓, Henry V. ↑,
82', M'Vila Y. 🟨,
83', Monconduit T. ↓, Fofana I. ↑,
86', Kandil N. ↓, Mbaye M. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 1, Coulibaly K. ⚽,
90+4', Leautey A. ↓, Rafii Y. ↑,
90+4', Corchia S. ↓, Bakayoko S. ↑,
90+6', Vita R. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Amiens won 0.

Amiens has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Caen is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Caen will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Caen: Benrahou Y. (Injury) Gaucho Debohi D. (Yellow Cards) Grandsir S. (Injury) M'Vila Y. (Injury)

Last 15 head-to-head matches Amiens won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 10:16 (average 0.7:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Amiens won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:3 (average 0.8:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Amiens SC
French Ligue 2
07.03.25	Red Star - Amiens	2:0 ✺
01.03.25	Amiens - Metz	1:2 ✺
21.02.25	Rodez - Amiens	1:1 ✺
14.02.25	Amiens - Grenoble	1:4 ✺
08.02.25	Lorient - Amiens	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLTLL
- SM Caen
French Ligue 2
07.03.25	Caen - Laval	0:1 ✺
28.02.25	Clermont - Caen	0:1 ✺
22.02.25	Caen - Pau	2:2 ✺
17.02.25	Annecy - Caen	1:0 ✺
10.02.25	Caen - Dunkerque	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
24.09.24	Caen - Amiens	2:1
10.02.24	Caen - Amiens	2:0
19.12.23	Amiens - Caen	0:0
20.05.23	Amiens - Caen	1:3
10.09.22	Caen - Amiens	3:1
16.04.22	Caen - Amiens	1:1
06.11.21	Amiens - Caen	0:0

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