Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 2 - Round 24

Date: 22 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Michel d'Ornano (Caen)

Referee: Chapapria R. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Caen		Pau

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.1	2.8	Watch
	2.39	3.05	2.75
	2.56	3.35	2.92
	2.47	3.3	2.8	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.75
	2.46	3.44	2.8	Watch
	2.39	3.05	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↓ (2.67)	3.22 ↑ (3.18)	2.8 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caen
37.8%

Draw
28.9%

Pau
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

28.8%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.4%

28.8%

36.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Pau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caen than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pau than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	18.2%	27.3%

Caen - Pau Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Caen will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Pau will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Caen: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mandrea A. (G) 4. Henry V. 29. Thomas R. (C) 61. Traore B. 88. Ba Loua A. 77. Gaucho Debohi D. 6. M'Vila Y. 10. Brahimi B. 27. Gaudin J. 8. Le Bihan M. 19. Mendy A.	1. Kamara B. (C) 12. Gaspar J. 4. Kouassi L.X. 25. Ruiz J. 33. Kalulu J. 6. Ngom O. 2. Koudou T. 17. Mille A. 21. Beusnard S. 9. Mboup P. 18. Diawara K.
Substitutes
16. Clementia Y. (G) 18. Coulibaly K. 20. Lebreton N. 5. Moucketou-Moussounda A. 50. Najim I. 14. Rajot L. 25. Sy L.	7. Arconte T. 27. Bangre M. 20. Gomes T. 55. Jeannin M. (G) 19. Kante 8. Lopy J. 23. Obiang J.
Coaches
Der Zakarian M.	Usai N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', Traore B. 🟨,
7', 0 - 1, Mille A. (Pen),
10', 1 - 1, M'Vila Y. ⚽, Gaucho Debohi D. (A),
30', Gaucho Debohi D. 🟨,
32', Kouassi L.X. 🟨,
34', Kamara B. 🟨,
35', Mendy A. (Pen),
35', Mendy A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', Mille A. 🟨,
58', Kouassi L.X. 🟨,
59', 2 - 1, Thomas R. ⚽, Gaudin J. (A),
61', Ba Loua A. ↓, Najim I. ↑,
63', Thomas R. 🟥,
65', Beusnard S. ↓, Arconte T. ↑,
65', Diawara K. ↓, Bangre M. ↑,
65', Koudou T. ↓, Kante ↑,
66', Le Bihan M. ↓, Rajot L. ↑,
71', 2 - 2, Mboup P. (Pen),
72', Ngom O. ↓, Lopy J. ↑,
81', Arconte T. ↓, Obiang J. ↑,
86', Gaudin J. 🟨,
90', Henry V. ↓, Coulibaly K. ↑,
90', Najim I. ↓, Sy L. ↑,
90+7', M'Vila Y. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Caen won 2.

Caen has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Pau is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Pau could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Caen will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Caen: Benrahou Y. (Injury) Lecoeuche Q. (Injury)

There will not play in Pau: Bobichon A. (Injury) Boto K. (Injury) Gomes T. (Injury)

There are questionable in Caen: Grandsir S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Pau: Meddah D. (Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Caen won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 8:10 (average 0.9:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Caen won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:4 (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SM Caen
French Ligue 2
17.02.25	Annecy - Caen	1:0 ✺
10.02.25	Caen - Dunkerque	0:2 ✺
01.02.25	Troyes - Caen	3:0 ✺
24.01.25	Caen - Guingamp	0:1 ✺
17.01.25	Ajaccio - Caen	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Pau FC
French Ligue 2
14.02.25	Pau - Rodez	0:5 ✺
07.02.25	Paris FC - Pau	3:1 ✺
31.01.25	Pau - Laval	1:1 ✺
24.01.25	Bastia - Pau	1:1 ✺
17.01.25	Red Star - Pau	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
23.08.24	Pau - Caen	1:0
02.03.24	Pau - Caen	2:3
12.08.23	Caen - Pau	2:0
02.06.23	Pau - Caen	1:0
30.08.22	Caen - Pau	1:1
19.02.22	Pau - Caen	1:0
11.09.21	Caen - Pau	1:2

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