Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 36

Date: 11 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Campo Municipal de Urritxe (Amorebieta-Etxano)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Amorebieta		Celta de Vigo B

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.2	1.9
	2.75	3.25	2.2
	3.45	3.5	1.99
	3.41	3.82	1.97
	3.31	3.7	1.94	Watch
	3.84	3.32	1.97
	3.45	3.5	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↓ (4.14)	3.47 ↑ (3.25)	1.99 ↑ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amorebieta
27%

Draw
26.6%

Celta de Vigo B
46.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.9%

27.9%

50.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.1%

26.9%

51.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amorebieta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Amorebieta's performance.

Celta de Vigo B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amorebieta than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Amorebieta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celta de Vigo B than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Celta de Vigo B could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Amorebieta - Celta de Vigo B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marino U. (C) 20. Coto E. 5. Amelibia J. 22. Yuste A. 4. Kortazar M. 3. Camacho S. 17. Munoz I. 16. Masllorens J. 14. Ben Hamed N. 11. Hervias P. 8. Vicandi A.	25. Fernandez C. G. (G) 4. Alonso G. (C) 21. Fernandez M. 6. Meixus P. 7. Diez S. 14. Burcio H. 10. de la Iglesia D. 23. Garriel I. 16. Gonzalez H. 17. Marcos O. 3. Tincho
Substitutes
10. Berto 19. Bravo Fernandez M. 23. Calavera J. 18. Coulibaly A. 21. Marin A. 25. Montoya J. (G) 7. Selma D. 12. Sola J.	15. Antanon A. 34. Barreiros I. 1. Carrillo J. B. (G) 36. Crespo Y. 9. Escobar J. 29. Gavian P. 11. Guedes J. 18. Lopez J. 27. Rodriguez A. 24. Vazquez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Marcos O. ⚽,
9', 1 - 1, Yuste A. ⚽,
13', 2 - 1, Masllorens J. ⚽,
34', 3 - 1, Hervias P. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', de la Iglesia D. ↓, Guedes J. ↑,
46', Fernandez M. ↓, Antanon A. ↑,
59', 3 - 2, Gonzalez H. ⚽,
63', Munoz I. ↓, Sola J. ↑,
63', Hervias P. ↓, Selma D. ↑,
63', Vicandi A. ↓, Marin A. ↑,
68', 4 - 2, Marin A. ⚽,
70', Diez S. ↓, Gavian P. ↑,
74', Garriel I. ↓, Barreiros I. ↑,
75', 🟨,
75', Ben Hamed N. ↓, Calavera J. ↑,
86', Marcos O. ↓, Crespo Y. ↑,
90+5', 4 - 3, Alonso G. (Pen),
90+7', 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 7).

Amorebieta is Relegated to

Amorebieta has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Celta de Vigo B is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Celta de Vigo B may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Amorebieta won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Amorebieta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
03.05.25	Barakaldo - Amorebieta	2:0 ✺
26.04.25	Barcelona B - Amorebieta	0:2 ✺
20.04.25	Amorebieta - Zamora	0:2 ✺
12.04.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Amorebieta	2:1 ✺
06.04.25	Amorebieta - Real Sociedad B	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LWLLL
- Celta de Vigo B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
04.05.25	Celta de Vigo B - Osasuna B	3:0 ✺
27.04.25	Zamora - Celta de Vigo B	1:1 ✺
20.04.25	Celta de Vigo B - Tarazona	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Gimnástica Segoviana - Celta de Vigo B	1:3 ✺
04.04.25	Celta de Vigo B - Barcelona B	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
13.10.24	Celta de Vigo B - Amorebieta	3:1

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