Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 35

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Campo de Lasesarre (Barakaldo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Barakaldo		Amorebieta

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.4	4.33
	1.65	3.4	4.6
	1.68	3.6	4.8
	1.74	3.65	4.59
	1.7	3.57	4.52	Watch
	1.77	3.54	4.51
	1.68	3.6	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.55)	3.54 ↓ (3.7)	4.59 ↓ (5.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barakaldo
54%

Draw
26%

Amorebieta
20%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.1%

24.8%

16.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

23.9%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barakaldo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Barakaldo's form might have worsened.

Amorebieta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Barakaldo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amorebieta than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Barakaldo - Amorebieta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tena J. (G) 2. de Jesus B. 15. Muguruza A. 12. Artetxe M. 4. Jelbat A. 5. Molina E. 8. Huidobro J. 7. Pedernales I. 11. Revilla A. 14. Txoperena U. 9. Valino A.	1. Marino U. (G) 5. Amelibia J. 22. Yuste A. 4. Kortazar M. 20. Coto E. 14. Ben Hamed N. 12. Sola J. 3. Camacho S. 8. Vicandi A. 21. Marin A. 17. Munoz I.
Substitutes
22. Bujan U. 20. Martinez J. 6. Naveira U. 13. Perez U. (G) 24. Salado A. 18. Santiago P. 19. Taranilla V. 21. Uriarte K.	40. Azkuna J. 10. Berto 19. Bravo Fernandez M. 23. Calavera J. 18. Coulibaly A. 11. Hervias P. 16. Masllorens J. 25. Montoya J. (G) 7. Selma D. 28. Yaniz P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', Kortazar M. 🟨,
29', 1 - 0, Molina E. ⚽,
33', Sola J. ↓, Masllorens J. ↑,
33', Marin A. ↓, Selma D. ↑,
39', Muguruza A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', 2 - 0, Valino A. ⚽,
68', 🟨,
69', Revilla A. ↓, Santiago P. ↑,
69', Txoperena U. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
73', Ben Hamed N. ↓, Hervias P. ↑,
73', Kortazar M. ↓, Coulibaly A. ↑,
73', Coto E. ↓, Calavera J. ↑,
88', de Jesus B. ↓, Naveira U. ↑,
88', Molina E. ↓, Bujan U. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 20 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Barakaldo won 1.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

In this match, Barakaldo is the team to beat.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Barakaldo won 3 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:29. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Barakaldo won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:14. (average 1.3:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
27.04.25	Gimnástica Segoviana - Barakaldo	1:1 ✺
19.04.25	Barakaldo - Sestao	2:3 ✺
12.04.25	Osasuna B - Barakaldo	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Barakaldo - Athletic Bilbao B	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Real Sociedad B - Barakaldo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TLLTT
- SD Amorebieta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
26.04.25	Barcelona B - Amorebieta	0:2 ✺
20.04.25	Amorebieta - Zamora	0:2 ✺
12.04.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Amorebieta	2:1 ✺
06.04.25	Amorebieta - Real Sociedad B	0:1 ✺
30.03.25	Gimnástica Segoviana - Amorebieta	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.12.24	Amorebieta - Barakaldo	2:2
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
03.03.21	Barakaldo - Amorebieta	0:1
31.10.20	Amorebieta - Barakaldo	2:0
30.11.19	Amorebieta - Barakaldo	3:2
05.05.19	Barakaldo - Amorebieta	4:3
15.12.18	Amorebieta - Barakaldo	2:0
21.04.18	Amorebieta - Barakaldo	2:2

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