Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 25

Date: 8 September 2024, Sunday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	América Mineiro		Guarani

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.2	5.25	Watch
	1.8	3	4.8
	1.83	3.1	5
	1.86	3.1	5.71
	1.97	2.98	4.53
	1.83	3.1	4.75
	1.87	3.15	4.72
	1.83	3.1	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↑ (1.51)	3.09 ↓ (3.85)	4.97 ↓ (6.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América Mineiro
50.7%

Draw
30.4%

Guarani
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.5%

24.1%

14.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.1%

26.3%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that América Mineiro's form might have worsened.

Guarani has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+16.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for América Mineiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Guarani, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

América Mineiro - Guarani Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. América MG will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Guarani will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for América MG: 40% – 93.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Dalberson (G) 20. Daniel Borges 45. Ricardo Silva 3. Lucao 6. Marlon 16. Ale 8. Juninho 5. Elizari F. 75. Rodriguinho 88. Matheus Davo 44. Adyson	89. Vladimir (G) 28. Pacheco 23. Douglas Bacelar 13. Matheus Salustiano 17. Jefferson 33. Gabriel Bispo 18. Matheus Bueno 10. Luan Dias 19. Joao Victor 99. Caio Dantas 30. Airton
Substitutes
80. Daniel Junior 28. Fabinho 19. Felipe Amaral 99. Jonathas 12. Jori (G) 18. Julio 36. Mateus Henrique 15. Moises 30. Nicolas 78. Renato Marques 7. Vinicius 68. Yago Santos	5. Anderson Leite 6. Emerson 2. Heitor 39. Lohan 12. Lucas Adell 8. Marlon Douglas 1. Pegorari (G) 47. Pierre 20. Reinaldo
Coaches
Lisca	Aal A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
14', Gabriel Bispo 🟨,
19', 1 - 0, Matheus Davo ⚽, Daniel Borges (A),
40', Airton ↓, Marlon Douglas ↑,
42', 2 - 0, Rodriguinho ⚽, Adyson (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gabriel Bispo ↓, Anderson Leite ↑,
53', Anderson Leite 🟨,
64', Luan Dias 🟨,
65', Elizari F. ↓, Fabinho ↑,
69', Jefferson ↓, Emerson ↑,
70', Caio Dantas ↓, Lohan ↑,
73', Matheus Davo ↓, Renato Marques ↑,
74', Adyson ↓, Felipe Amaral ↑,
79', Joao Victor ↓, Reinaldo ↑,
90', 3 - 0, Renato Marques ⚽, Marlon (A),
90+1', Fabinho ↓, Moises ↑,
90+1', Ale ↓, Mateus Henrique ↑,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 9 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Recent matches América MG is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Guarani is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

América MG could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match América MG is a favorite.

There will not play in América MG: Brenner (Injury) Gustavinho (Injury) Martin Benitez (Injury) Pedro Barcelos (Injury)

There are questionable in Guarani: Bruno Mendes (Injury) Marcio Silva (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches América MG won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
03.09.24	Mirassol - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
25.08.24	Vila Nova - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
21.08.24	América Mineiro - Chapecoense	0:0 ✺
16.08.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
09.08.24	América Mineiro - Botafogo SP	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLTTW
- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Serie B
03.09.24	Guarani - Coritiba	2:1 ✺
21.08.24	Guarani - Santos	1:1 ✺
17.08.24	Chapecoense - Guarani	0:4 ✺
12.08.24	Guarani - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
06.08.24	Ceará - Guarani	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
20.05.24	Guarani - América Mineiro	1:2

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