Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 20

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio del Conero (Ancona)


	Ancona		Atletico Ascoli

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.2	3.55
	1.96	3.33	3.54	Watch
	1.97	3.24	3.51
	1.96	3.2	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.2)	3.24 ↓ (3.33)	3.55 ↑ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ancona
46.5%

Draw
28%

Atletico Ascoli
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

27.2%

31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

26.1%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ancona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ancona's performance.

Atletico Ascoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atletico Ascoli might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ancona than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atletico Ascoli than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Ancona - Atletico Ascoli Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Gerbaudo M. ⚽,
29', 2 - 0, Zini A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
89', 2 - 1, Muro A. ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group F (Play Offs: ) and 6).

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Ancona may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ancona might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ancona won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ancona won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ancona	6	3	2	1	8:5	3	11
14	Atletico Ascoli	6	2	1	3	6:8	-2	7

Last Results with these Odds

Atletico Ascoli - the odds 2.86 are the expected chance of winning is 31.64%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Ancona 1905
Italian Serie D - Group F
11.01.26	Ancona - Termoli	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie D
07.01.26	Ancona - Francavilla	1:1 ✺
Italian Serie D - Group F
04.01.26	Ostia Mare - Ancona	0:1 ✺
21.12.25	Notaresco - Ancona	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Ancona - L Aquila	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WTWTW
- Atletico Ascoli
Italian Serie D - Group F
11.01.26	Atletico Ascoli - Notaresco	0:0 ✺
04.01.26	L Aquila - Atletico Ascoli	1:2 ✺
21.12.25	Teramo - Atletico Ascoli	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Atletico Ascoli - Sammaurese	3:2 ✺
07.12.25	Fossombrone - Atletico Ascoli	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia Serie D
22.10.25	Ancona - Atletico Ascoli	1:0
Italian Serie D - Group F
21.09.25	Atletico Ascoli - Ancona	1:2
30.03.25	Ancona - Atletico Ascoli	0:2

Ancona - Atletico Ascoli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide