Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie C - First stage - Round 15

Date: 29 July 2024, Monday

Location: Estádio Annibal Batista de Toledo (Aparecida de Goiânia)

Referee: Negreiros J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Aparecidense		Floresta

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.57	3.5	5
	1.62	3.5	5	Watch
	1.63	3.59	5.76
	1.6	3.6	5.46	Watch
	1.53	3.4	5.5
	1.6	3.52	5.36	Watch
	1.59	3.55	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (2.07)	3.52 ↑ (3.15)	5.33 ↑ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aparecidense
57.1%

Draw
25.8%

Floresta
17.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

29%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

29.1%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aparecidense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aparecidense's performance.

Floresta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Floresta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aparecidense than the current prediction. (-12.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aparecidense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Floresta than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Floresta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	22.2%	22.2%

Aparecidense - Floresta Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Aparecidense will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Floresta will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aparecidense: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Matheus Alves (G) 9. Alan James 8. Du Fernandes 13. Emanuel 20. Falcao 2. Genilson 7. Guilherme Nunes (C) 11. Igor Torres 5. Luan Martins 4. Mauricio 3. Vanderley	1. Luiz Daniel (G) 14. Alisson 13. Andrew 31. Icaro 19. Lohan 3. Lucas Santos 21. Marcelo (C) 18. Marllon 15. Para 11. Romarinho 2. Watson
Substitutes
14. Cauari 17. Enzo 18. Ezequiel 15. Henrique Vermudt 19. Juninho 21. Marcelinho 1. Pedro Henrique (G) 10. Robert 6. Rodrigues 16. Ruan 22. Victor Hugo	26. Arilson 17. Bismark 6. Bruno Re 23. Buba 16. Davi Castro 30. Diego Ferreira 9. Felipe Marques 5. Jo 8. Lucas Alisson 27. Rayne 20. Vitinho 12. Wilderk (G)
Coaches
Emerson Avila	Marcelo Cabo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Marcelo ⚽,
27', 1 - 1, Du Fernandes ⚽,
31', Andrew 🟨,
45+2', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', 🟨,
84', Buba 🟨,
87', Matheus Alves 🟨,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D and 13).

Aparecidense is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Floresta is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Floresta could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Aparecidense is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Aparecidense won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Aparecidense won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Aparecidense
Brazilian Serie C
24.07.24	Aparecidense - Ypiranga	0:0 ✺
21.07.24	EC São José Porto Alegre - Aparecidense	0:1 ✺
17.07.24	Caxias - Aparecidense	3:0 ✺
06.07.24	Aparecidense - Londrina	1:2 ✺
03.07.24	Botafogo PB - Aparecidense	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TWLLL
- Floresta EC
Brazilian Serie C
22.07.24	Floresta - Sampaio Corrêa	1:0 ✺
14.07.24	CS Alagoano - Floresta	1:2 ✺
08.07.24	EC São José Porto Alegre - Floresta	0:0 ✺
30.06.24	Floresta - Caxias	2:1 ✺
22.06.24	Tombense - Floresta	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
31.07.23	Aparecidense - Floresta	0:0
22.05.22	Aparecidense - Floresta	3:2

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