Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie C - First stage - Round 14

Date: 21 July 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Passo d'Areia (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Junior R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	EC São José Porto Alegre		Aparecidense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2	3	3.4
	2.1	3	3.4
	2.12	3.1	3.71
	2.06	3.13	3.53
	2	3	3.4
	2.04	3.1	3.53	Watch
	2.09	3	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.87)	3.05 ↓ (3.35)	3.49 ↓ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

EC São José Porto Alegre
44.1%

Draw
29.8%

Aparecidense
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

27.4%

23.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.1%

26.9%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

EC São José Porto Alegre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Aparecidense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for EC São José Porto Alegre than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for EC São José Porto Alegre, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aparecidense than the current prediction. (-3%)

EC São José Porto Alegre - Aparecidense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio Rampi (G) 18. Alessandro Vinicius 3. Fredson 6. Lailson 11. Marcio Jonatan 17. Nonato 10. Palacio A. 14. Rafael Carillho 9. Rene Sousa 2. Samuel 4. Tiago Pedra	12. Matheus Alves (G) 20. Cauari 8. Du Fernandes 13. Emanuel 2. Genilson 7. Guilherme Nunes (C) 11. Igor Torres 5. Luan Martins 4. Mauricio 9. Rubens 3. Vanderley
Substitutes
5. Carlos Alexandre 15. Danielzinho 8. Edinho 33. Edson Junior (G) 20. Emerson Brito 19. Gabriel Morbeck 7. Gabriel Terra 21. Jean Lucca 22. Matheuzinho 16. Nayssinho M. V. 12. Peralta A. (G) 13. Thiago Tinoco	18. Alan James 15. Enzo 19. Ezequiel 21. Falcao 16. Juninho 14. Luan Sales 23. Matheus Inacio (G) 1. Pedro Henrique (G) 10. Robert 6. Rodrigues 17. Ruan 22. Victor Hugo
Coaches
Zimermann R.	Emerson Avila

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', 🟨,
13', Emanuel 🟨,
45+4', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Palacio A. ↓, Edinho ↑,
59', 🟨,
65', 0 - 1, Du Fernandes ⚽,
69', Rafael Carillho 🟨,
79', Nonato 🟨,
80', Rubens ↓, Ezequiel ↑,
82', Thiago Tinoco 🟨,
86', Du Fernandes ↓, Enzo ↑,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D).

EC São José Porto Alegre has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Aparecidense is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Aparecidense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

EC São José Porto Alegre will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches EC São José Porto Alegre won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC São José Porto Alegre
Brazilian Serie C
17.07.24	Botafogo PB - EC São José Porto Alegre	2:1 ✺
13.07.24	Sampaio Corrêa - EC São José Porto Alegre	2:0 ✺
08.07.24	EC São José Porto Alegre - Floresta	0:0 ✺
04.07.24	EC São José Porto Alegre - Athletic Club	0:1 ✺
30.06.24	Ferroviária - EC São José Porto Alegre	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLL
- AA Aparecidense
Brazilian Serie C
17.07.24	Caxias - Aparecidense	3:0 ✺
06.07.24	Aparecidense - Londrina	1:2 ✺
03.07.24	Botafogo PB - Aparecidense	4:3 ✺
24.06.24	Aparecidense - Náutico Capibaribe	2:2 ✺
15.06.24	Aparecidense - Tombense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
09.07.23	Aparecidense - EC São José Porto Alegre	2:1
05.06.22	Aparecidense - EC São José Porto Alegre	1:2

EC São José Porto Alegre - Aparecidense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide