Match Info

Date: 20 May 2021, Thursday


	Aragua		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	9	4.75	1.28	Watch
	8.25	5	1.28
	8.5	4.9	1.29	Watch
	8.4	4.8	1.29
	9.24	5.13	1.34
	11	5	1.29	Watch
	11.25	5.6	1.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.38 ↑ (7.85)	5.03 ↓ (5.08)	1.29 ↓ (1.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aragua
9.8%

Draw
18.4%

Grêmio
71.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.6%

18%

70.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10.2%

15.8%

80%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aragua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aragua than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Aragua - Grêmio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Aragua has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Grêmio is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Grêmio could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Grêmio is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Aragua won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aragua FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
16.05.21	Aragua - Academia Puerto Cabello	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.05.21	Aragua - Deportivo La Equidad	1:2 ✺
06.05.21	Grêmio - Aragua	8:0 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
02.05.21	Deportivo Lara - Aragua	4:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.04.21	Deportivo La Equidad - Aragua	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TLLLL
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
16.05.21	Internacional RS - Grêmio	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.05.21	Grêmio - Lanús	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
09.05.21	Grêmio - Caxias	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.21	Grêmio - Aragua	8:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
02.05.21	Caxias - Grêmio	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
06.05.21	Grêmio - Aragua	8:0

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