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Current Win Probability
Aragua 32.5%
Draw 29%
Academia Puerto Cabello 38.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
37.8%
32.6%
29.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
40.1%
34.6%
28%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Aragua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aragua's form might have worsened.
Academia Puerto Cabello has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Academia Puerto Cabello's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aragua than the current prediction. (+7.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aragua, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Academia Puerto Cabello than the current prediction. (-10.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Academia Puerto Cabello, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
9.8%
19.5%
70.7%
Aragua - Academia Puerto Cabello Predictions
Users Predictions:
41 users predict this event. Aragua will win (votes: 4 - 9.8%). Puerto Cabello will win (votes: 29 - 70.7%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 19.5%). Confidence interval (95%) for Puerto Cabello: 56.8% – 84.6%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Division (Copa Sudamericana ~ Play Offs)).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Aragua won 1.
Aragua is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Recent matches Puerto Cabello is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.
Last 11 head-to-head matches Aragua won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13-11.
Including matches at home between the teams Aragua won 1 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-4.
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