Match Info

Premier League - Round 7

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday

Location: Shamakhi City Stadium (Shamakhi)

Referee: Ahmedov R. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Araz Naxçıvan		Kapaz

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.40	2.85
	2.08	3.3	2.95	Watch
	2.13	3.4	3.49
	2.15	3.51	2.97	Watch
	2.05	3.15	3.45
	2.16	3.47	3.15	Watch
	2.12	3.4	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.56)	3.38 ↑ (3.28)	3.12 ↑ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Araz Naxçıvan
43.4%

Draw
27.2%

Kapaz
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

28.1%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

27.9%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Araz Naxçıvan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Araz Naxçıvan's performance.

Kapaz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kapaz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Araz Naxçıvan than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Araz Naxçıvan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kapaz than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kapaz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Araz Naxçıvan - Kapaz Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Araz will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Ahmadli T. (G) 6. Andrade P. (C) 12. Bruno Franco 5. Dumancic L. 23. Fernandez A. 27. Letic B. 11. Mara M. 29. Nuriyev C. 17. Paro I. 2. Rzayev A. 9. Salyanskiy A.	1. Rogerio (G) 34. Abbasov U. (C) 4. Abuladze M. 27. Acquah D. 7. Alasgarov N. 3. Ba M. 33. Benito 66. Domgjoni D. 14. Fofana A. 9. Kalunga K. 11. Stina V.
Substitutes
8. Ahmadzada M. 13. Alizada Q. 1. Augusto A. (G) 10. Boli C. 26. Buludov O. 14. Iskandarov U. 21. Piriyev I. 19. Sudi A. 53. Tagiyev F.	6. Abdullayev V. 2. Atakishiyev A. 94. Azizli R. (G) 5. Babayev H. 81. Bayramov E. (G) 10. Haciyev R. 23. Isaqov R. 70. Ismayilov S. 19. Kalantarov F. 20. Maharramli R. 17. Samadov U. 8. Seyidov S.
Coaches
Maksimov Y.	Mammadov A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', Acquah D. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Benito ⚽,
42', Bruno Franco ↓, Sudi A. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Acquah D. ↓, Seyidov S. ↑,
63', Benito ↓, Haciyev R. ↑,
78', Ba M. ↓, Abdullayev V. ↑,
78', Stina V. ↓, Maharramli R. ↑,
78', Nuriyev C. 🟨,
80', Salyanskiy A. ↓, Iskandarov U. ↑,
82', Andrade P. 🟨,
85', Mara M. ↓, Boli C. ↑,
86', 0 - 2, Haciyev R. ⚽,
88', Fofana A. ↓, Atakishiyev A. ↑,

Preview

A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 12th in the Relegation - I Liqa and 7th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Araz won 3.

Araz has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Kapaz has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Recently, Kapaz has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Araz is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Araz has recorded 6 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 13:8 (averaging 1.1:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Araz against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with 6:4 goals (averaging 0.9:0.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Kapaz	6	3	1	2	6:7	-1	10
12	Araz	7	0	2	5	5:15	-10	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Araz Naxçıvan PFK
Azerbaijan Premier League
20.09.26	Shamakhi - Araz Naxçıvan	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Turan Tovuz	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Araz Naxçıvan	3:2 ✺
31.08.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Sabah	0:1 ✺
23.08.26	Neftchi Baku - Araz Naxçıvan	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LTLLL
- FK Kapaz
Azerbaijan Premier League
20.09.26	Kapaz - Sumgayit	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Kapaz - Gabala	1:0 ✺
04.09.26	Kapaz - Shamakhi	1:4 ✺
30.08.26	Kapaz - Turan Tovuz	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Sabah - Kapaz	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
15.05.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Kapaz	2:0
09.12.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Kapaz	2:0
Azerbaijan Cup
04.12.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Kapaz	0:1 ET
Azerbaijan Premier League
12.09.25	Kapaz - Araz Naxçıvan	0:2
13.04.25	Kapaz - Araz Naxçıvan	0:0
10.02.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Kapaz	0:0
22.11.24	Kapaz - Araz Naxçıvan	0:2

Araz Naxçıvan - Kapaz: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide