Match Info
Premier League - Round 17Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday
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Arba Minch |
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Fasil Kenema |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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3.05 |
2.62 |
2.48 |
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3.05 |
2.67 |
2.6 |
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3.05 |
2.66 |
2.61 |
 Watch |
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3 |
2.45 |
2.5 |
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3.1 |
2.59 |
2.55 |
Watch |
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3 |
2.66 |
2.62 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.04 ↓
(3.54) |
2.61 ↓
(2.76) |
2.56 ↑
(2.18) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 1.50
- The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Arba Minch
29.8% | Draw
34.8% | Fasil Kenema
35.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arba Minch has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)Fasil Kenema has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fasil Kenema might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arba Minch than the current prediction. (-4.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fasil Kenema than the current prediction. (+7.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fasil Kenema could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Arba Minch - Fasil Kenema Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 12', 0 - 1, Zelalem K. ⚽,
- 25', 1 - 1, Iyassu T. ⚽,
- 33', 1 - 2, Zelalem K. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 50', 2 - 2, Abera T. ⚽,
- 51', 2 - 3, Gebregiorgis N. ⚽,
Preview
An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 5).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arba Minch won 2.Arba Minch is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).Fasil Kenema has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins โ 1).Fasil Kenema may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. Fasil Kenema could have a small edge in this match.In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Arba Minch won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 0.8:0.6).Including home matches between the teams, Arba Minch won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 0.8:0.5).
Standings
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 4 | Fasil Kenema | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 28:28 | 0 | 55 |
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| 20 | Arba Menche | 38 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 30:46 | -16 | 35 |
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Ethiopian Premier League | | | 01.03.25 | Arba Minch - Fasil Kenema | 1:0 | | 29.10.24 | Fasil Kenema - Arba Minch | 0:1 | | 08.05.23 | Fasil Kenema - Arba Minch | 1:1 | | 19.11.22 | Arba Minch - Fasil Kenema | 1:1 | | 26.04.22 | Arba Minch - Fasil Kenema | 0:1 | | 27.11.21 | Fasil Kenema - Arba Minch | 1:1 | | 14.07.18 | Arba Minch - Fasil Kenema | 1:0 |
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