Match Info

Date: 14 November 2020, Saturday


	Arbroath		Elgin City

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	6.5	Watch
	1.36	5	6
	1.35	5	7	Watch
	1.32	5.8	6.8
	1.42	5.39	6.66
	1.32	5	8	Watch
	1.39	5.3	6.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.41)	5.21 ↑ (4.42)	6.8 ↑ (6.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arbroath
68.5%

Draw
17.8%

Elgin City
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.1%

20.7%

14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

11.9%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arbroath has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Elgin City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arbroath than the current prediction. (-31.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arbroath that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elgin City than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Elgin City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Arbroath - Elgin City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Arbroath has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Elgin is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Elgin could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Arbroath is absolute favorite.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Arbroath won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 22-24.

Including matches at home between the teams Arbroath won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 16-14.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arbroath
Scottish Football Championship
07.11.20	Arbroath - Queen of the South	1:1 ✺
31.10.20	Inverness - Arbroath	3:1 ✺
23.10.20	Arbroath - Hearts	0:1 ✺
17.10.20	Raith Rovers - Arbroath	3:0 ✺
Scottish League Cup
13.10.20	Ross County - Arbroath	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TLLLL
- Elgin City
Scottish League Cup
10.11.20	Elgin City - Ross County	1:4 ✺
Scottish League Two
07.11.20	Elgin City - Queens Park	0:1 ✺
31.10.20	Edinburgh City - Elgin City	1:0 ✺
24.10.20	Elgin City - Brechin City	3:0 ✺
17.10.20	Stranraer - Elgin City	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League Cup
13.07.19	Arbroath - Elgin City	2:1
Scottish Challenge Cup
15.08.18	Elgin City - Arbroath	1:2 penalties
Scottish League Cup
21.07.18	Arbroath - Elgin City	2:0
Scottish League Two
29.04.17	Arbroath - Elgin City	3:2
04.03.17	Elgin City - Arbroath	0:0
17.12.16	Arbroath - Elgin City	3:2
20.08.16	Elgin City - Arbroath	0:1

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