Match Info

League One - Round 36

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Gayfield Park (Arbroath)


	Arbroath		Queen of the South

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.25	3.2
	2	3.25	3.2
	2.14	3.4	3.15
	2.19	3.5	3.11
	2.18	3.42	3.19	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.5
	2.11	3.42	3.17	Watch
	2.14	3.4	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (2.08)	3.37 ↑ (3.33)	3.21 ↓ (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arbroath
43.7%

Draw
27.5%

Queen of the South
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

27.6%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.2%

29.4%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arbroath has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Queen of the South has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arbroath than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Queen of the South than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	11.1%	33.3%

Arbroath - Queen of the South Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Arbroath will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Queen of the South will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arbroath: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Arbroath (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Queen of the South (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Queen of the South (5.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Queen of the South (2.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Arbroath (votes: 2 - 40%). Queen of the South (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. McAdams A. (G) 19. Penman C. 27. Muirhead A. 5. O'Brien T. (C) 4. Wilkie J. 6. Stanton S. 20. Flynn R. 12. Stewart S. 14. Taylor F. 11. Dow R. 25. Winter A.	1. Stewart R. (G) 2. Hewitt M. 5. Douglas M. (C) 35. Brydon J. 4. Lyon R. 17. O'Donnell L. 8. Luissint B. 22. MacIntyre O. 23. Walker J. 25. Doherty K. 19. Bryden F.
Substitutes
9. Gallagher C. 17. King B. 31. Mcconnell J. (G) 22. Murray I. 10. Reilly G. 32. Spalding A. 2. Steele A. 26. Thomson J. 15. Watson K.	29. Allan J. 12. Brooks A. 18. Charters T. 6. Cochrane H. 16. Hannah J. 20. Johnson M. (G) 10. Kennedy K. 7. Smith L. 32. Thompson J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', Bryden F. 🟨,
43', 0 - 1, Lyon R. ⚽, Walker J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Hewitt M. ↓, Thompson J. ↑,
54', Stewart S. 🟨,
59', Winter A. ↓, Reilly G. ↑,
60', MacIntyre O. ↓, Smith L. ↑,
61', Doherty K. ↓, Charters T. ↑,
67', Luissint B. 🟨,
68', O'Brien T. 🟨,
71', 🟨,
72', Penman C. ↓, Gallagher C. ↑,
75', 1 - 1, Dow R. ⚽, Taylor F. (A),
76', Walker J. ↓, Brooks A. ↑,
76', Lyon R. ↓, Kennedy K. ↑,
78', Flynn R. ↓, Spalding A. ↑,
84', 🟨,
84', O'Brien T. 🟨,

Preview

Arbroath is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Championship

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arbroath won 3.

Arbroath has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Queen of the South is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Arbroath could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Arbroath won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 23:16. (average 1.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Arbroath won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.6:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arbroath
Scottish League One
26.04.25	Inverness - Arbroath	3:0 ✺
19.04.25	Annan Athletic - Arbroath	5:1 ✺
12.04.25	Arbroath - Stenhousemuir	4:0 ✺
05.04.25	Montrose - Arbroath	0:1 ✺
29.03.25	Arbroath - Cove Rangers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLWWW
- Queen of the South
Scottish League One
26.04.25	Queen of the South - Stenhousemuir	2:0 ✺
19.04.25	Kelty Hearts - Queen of the South	1:3 ✺
12.04.25	Queen of the South - Montrose	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Annan Athletic - Queen of the South	0:2 ✺
29.03.25	Queen of the South - Inverness	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
15.02.25	Queen of the South - Arbroath	0:3
07.12.24	Arbroath - Queen of the South	2:1
Scottish Cup
30.11.24	Arbroath - Queen of the South	0:1
Scottish League One
14.09.24	Queen of the South - Arbroath	2:1
Scottish Challenge Cup
14.10.23	Queen of the South - Arbroath	1:2
Scottish Football Championship
16.04.22	Arbroath - Queen of the South	5:1
19.02.22	Queen of the South - Arbroath	0:0

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