Match Info

Premiership - Relegation - Quarter-finals

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: East End Park (Dunfermline)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Scotland	BBC Scotland
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport


	Dunfermline Athletic		Arbroath

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.2	3.8
	2.08	3.05	3.45	Watch
	2.12	3.21	3.74
	2.15	3.08	3.65	Watch
	2.05	3	3.4
	2.12	3.16	3.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.24)	3.12 ↓ (3.27)	3.6 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dunfermline Athletic
44.4%

Draw
29.8%

Arbroath
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

28.3%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

27.2%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dunfermline Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Arbroath has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dunfermline Athletic than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arbroath than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	27.3%	9.1%

Dunfermline Athletic - Arbroath Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Dunfermline will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Arbroath will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dunfermline: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Oxborough A. (G) 2. Chilokoa-Mullen J. (C) 18. Abdulai N. 3. Ngwenya K. 10. Todd M. 8. Gilmour C. 14. Amade A. 47. Fraser R. 38. Morrison C. 20. Kane Ch. 26. Tod A.	1. McAdams A. (G) 12. Stewart S. 16. Watson C. 5. O'Brien T. (C) 4. Wilkie J. 25. Cochrane H. 8. Flynn R. 15. MacIntyre J. 17. Marshall F. 11. Dow R. 10. Reilly G.
Substitutes
4. Benedictus K. 22. Bray K. 33. Cooper J. 34. Fyfe L. 5. Hamilton C. 11. Kearney S. 35. Oakley-Boothe T. 40. Terrell B. (G) 31. Tod J.	26. Beadling T. 27. Enem V. 7. Gold D. 3. Hamilton C. 62. Mebude D. 6. Muirhead A. 21. Pettigrew J. (G) 28. Robinson S.
Coaches
Lennon N.	Hamilton C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Kane Ch. ⚽, Tod A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Flynn R. 🟨,
66', Dow R. 🟨,
67', Amade A. 🟨,
71', O'Brien T. 🟨,
72', Dow R. ↓, Robinson S. ↑,
80', Fraser R. 🟨,
81', Morrison C. ↓, Cooper J. ↑,
82', Amade A. ↓, Tod J. ↑,
88', Kane Ch. ↓, Oakley-Boothe T. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Dunfermline is Qualified for Premiership (Relegation Quarter~finals)

Arbroath is Qualified for Premiership (Relegation Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dunfermline won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Arbroath may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Dunfermline could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Dunfermline won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 33:29. (average 1.7:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Dunfermline won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.3:1.3).

Outrights of Scottish Football Championship for now

Dunfermline: 8.83% Arbroath: 1.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Dunfermline	8	3	4	1	7:5	2	13
8	Arbroath	10	3	2	5	7:15	-8	11

Last Results with these Odds

Arbroath - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 30.36%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dunfermline Athletic
Scottish Football Championship
01.05.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Arbroath	0:0 ✺
25.04.26	Queens Park - Dunfermline Athletic	0:2 ✺
21.04.26	Dunfermline Athletic - St. Johnstone	0:2 ✺
Scottish Cup
18.04.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Falkirk	1:0 penalties ✺
Scottish Football Championship
14.04.26	Airdrieonians - Dunfermline Athletic	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 TWLWT
- Arbroath
Scottish Football Championship
01.05.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Arbroath	0:0 ✺
25.04.26	Arbroath - Partick Thistle	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Arbroath - Raith Rovers	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Ayr United - Arbroath	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Arbroath - St. Johnstone	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
01.05.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Arbroath	0:0
21.02.26	Arbroath - Dunfermline Athletic	4:2
06.12.25	Dunfermline Athletic - Arbroath	1:2
13.09.25	Arbroath - Dunfermline Athletic	0:5
30.03.24	Arbroath - Dunfermline Athletic	2:3
17.02.24	Dunfermline Athletic - Arbroath	1:1
23.12.23	Arbroath - Dunfermline Athletic	1:1

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