The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Arema 41.1%
Draw 28.1%
Persebaya Surabaya 30.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
47.6%
27.2%
25.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
48.5%
26.7%
24.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arema has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arema's form might have worsened.
Persebaya Surabaya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Persebaya Surabaya's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arema than the current prediction. (+7.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arema, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Persebaya Surabaya than the current prediction. (-6.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Persebaya Surabaya, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
60%
0%
40%
Arema - Persebaya Surabaya Predictions
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Arema will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Persebaya will win (votes: 2 - 40%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
31. Lucas Frigeri (G) 2. Fahmi R. 66. Yama H. 28. Betinho 87. Farisi A. (C) 25. Matheus Blade 8. Fikri A. 77. Gustavo Franca 7. Gabriel Silva 94. Dalberto 9. Joel Vinicius
52. Ramadhani A. (G) 5. Mitrevski R. 44. Gustavo Fernandes 2. Catur A. 17. Jefferson 68. Firmansyah T. 7. Rivera F. (C) 88. Raickovic M. 14. Ardiansyah R. 11. Perovic M. 22. Freitas Gali
Substitutes
95. Casvari A. (G) 4. Guntara L. 14. Hariono J. 96. Iksan M. 17. Mardiyanto D. 23. Rifai M. 41. Santoso D. 72. Setiawan B. 27. Setiawan D. 11. Tuharea S. 10. Valdeci 5. Walisson Maia
33. Araya K. 82. Arido A. (G) 81. Baihaqi M. 10. Bruno 83. Bruno Paraiba 8. Fernando O. 78. Mujtaba A. 55. Putra S. 15. Tata M. 26. Wicaksono D.
Coaches
Marquinhos S.
Tavares B.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Yama H. 🟨,
40', Firmansyah T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
49', 0 - 1, Rivera F. ⚽, Perovic M. (A),
53', Ardiansyah R. 🟨,
60', Ardiansyah R. ↓, Tata M. ↑,
60', Firmansyah T. ↓, Baihaqi M. ↑,
60', Perovic M. ↓, Bruno Paraiba ↑,
67', Betinho 🟨,
68', Freitas Gali ↓, Bruno ↑,
76', Bruno (Penalty Awarded),
76', 0 - 2, Jefferson ⚽,
77', Dalberto ↓, Valdeci ↑,
77', Farisi A. ↓, Guntara L. ↑,
82', 0 - 3, Rivera F. ⚽, Tata M. (A),
86', 0 - 4, Tata M. ⚽, Rivera F. (A),
90+2', Fikri A. ↓, Mardiyanto D. ↑,
90+2', Gustavo Franca ↓, Hariono J. ↑,
90+2', Gabriel Silva ↓, Rifai M. ↑,
90+2', Rivera F. ↓, Fernando O. ↑,
Preview
Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 6).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arema won 0.
Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Arema won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:28. (average 1.4:1.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Arema won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:8. (average 1.8:1).
Indonesia
Watch
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Lucas Frigeri (G) 
Fahmi R. 
Mitrevski R. 
Rivera F. (C) 
Raickovic M. 
Freitas Gali 
Tavares B. 
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