Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 20

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Toralín (Ponferrada)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Ponferradina		Ferrol

	1	X	2
	2.38	2.88	2.9
	2.48	2.92	2.88
	2.61	3.02	2.81	Watch
	2.4	2.75	2.9
	2.48	2.99	3.02
	2.36	3	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.55)	2.93 ↓ (2.95)	2.89 (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
37.2%

Draw
31.2%

Ferrol
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

31.5%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

30.8%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Ferrol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

The ML Model estimate for Ponferradina aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferrol than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Ponferradina - Ferrol Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Ferrol (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferrol (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Prieto A. (G) 23. Jorrin M. 3. Novoa G. 5. Undabarrena E. 19. Lopez A. 6. San Emeterio F. 16. Frimpong E. 10. Valle B. 20. Ferrer P. 9. Cortes J. 18. Vazquez B.	1. Parera P. M. (G) 16. Garcia S. 12. Chema 3. Pujol E. 22. Mardones A. 23. Pena A. 8. Gorostidi A. 5. Noriega J. 10. Pascu 20. Gimenez A. 11. Dacosta R.
Substitutes
8. Aguilar Elizalde E. 25. Barredo P. (G) 14. Fernandez X. 13. Jimenez A. (G) 17. Keita A. 26. Kysil V. 12. Lian 4. Moltenis B. 24. Moran E. 21. Moreno D. 7. Sergio Benito 15. Sousa V.	7. Alvaro J. 21. Carballo D. 18. Concha D. 25. Diaz L. (G) 9. Escobar A. 13. Fernandez C. G. (G) 24. Garcia A. 17. Ramon A. 15. Zalaya A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Valle B. (Penalty Awarded),
39', 2 - 0, Cortes J. ⚽,
45+3', Undabarrena E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Pena A. ↓, Escobar A. ↑,
58', Frimpong E. 🟥,
59', Garcia S. ↓, Alvaro J. ↑,
59', Dacosta R. ↓, Ramon A. ↑,
63', 🟨,
64', Cortes J. ↓, Keita A. ↑,
64', Ferrer P. ↓, Moran E. ↑,
70', Ramon A. 🟨,
77', 🟨,
83', Valle B. ↓, Aguilar Elizalde E. ↑,
83', Vazquez B. ↓, Fernandez X. ↑,
90+1', Escobar A. 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,
90+8', 3 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ponferradina won 2.

Ponferradina is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ferrol has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Ponferradina won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ponferradina won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ponferradina	6	3	2	1	5:3	2	11
8	Racing Club Ferrol	6	3	1	2	7:5	2	10

Last Results with these Odds

Ponferradina - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 36.41%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Ferrol - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 32.12%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
10.01.26	Ponferradina - Ourense CF	2:0 ✺
04.01.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Ponferradina	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Tenerife - Ponferradina	2:0 ✺
13.12.25	Ponferradina - Arenteiro	1:3 ✺
08.12.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Ponferradina	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLLLT
- Racing Club Ferrol
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
10.01.26	Ferrol - Athletic Bilbao B	0:1 ✺
03.01.26	Pontevedra - Ferrol	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	Real Avilés - Ferrol	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Ferrol - Unionistas de Salamanca	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Cacereño - Ferrol	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.09.25	Ferrol - Ponferradina	2:1
Club Friendly
16.08.25	Ferrol - Ponferradina	1:1
26.07.23	Ponferradina - Ferrol	0:2
24.07.22	Ponferradina - Ferrol	2:1
31.07.19	Ferrol - Ponferradina	1:2
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
14.01.18	Ferrol - Ponferradina	2:1
26.08.17	Ponferradina - Ferrol	0:0

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