Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 19

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Toralín (Ponferrada)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, TVG


	Ponferradina		Ourense CF

	1	X	2
	2.15	2.9	3.3
	2.18	3	3.3
	2.27	3.03	3.35	Watch
	2.2	2.75	3.25
	2.19	2.92	3.32
	2.25	2.9	3.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.22)	2.92 ↓ (2.99)	3.28 ↓ (3.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
41.2%

Draw
31.1%

Ourense CF
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

31.1%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

29.8%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Ourense CF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Ponferradina - Ourense CF Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Prieto A. (G) 2. Andujar D. 5. Undabarrena E. 6. San Emeterio F. 9. Cortes J. 10. Valle B. (C) 16. Frimpong E. 18. Vazquez B. 19. Lopez A. 20. Ferrer P. 23. Jorrin M.	13. Sanchez Vivas A. (G) 2. Coto E. 3. Sanz H. 4. Carmona F. (C) 6. Castillo N. 7. Bouzaig A. 12. Jelbat A. 17. Ouhdadi O. 21. Guerrero A. 22. Yuste A. 24. Moreno C.
Substitutes
25. Barredo P. (G) 14. Fernandez X. 13. Jimenez A. (G) 17. Keita A. 26. Kysil V. 12. Lian 4. Moltenis B. 21. Moreno D. 7. Sergio Benito 15. Sousa V.	11. Aranzabe A. 20. Gueye L. 16. Munoz D. 14. Perez A. 15. Piera J. 5. Prado M. 23. Punzano I. 18. Rabadan D. 8. Ramos J. 1. Raton A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Yuste A. 🟨,
35', 🟨,
41', 🟨,
45', Yuste A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', 1 - 0, Vazquez B. ⚽,
57', 🟨,
62', Andujar D. 🟥,
65', Ferrer P. ↓, Moltenis B. ↑,
65', 🟨,
68', Cortes J. ↓, Keita A. ↑,
71', Moreno C. ↓, Ramos J. ↑,
71', Ouhdadi O. ↓, Punzano I. ↑,
71', 2 - 0, Keita A. ⚽,
78', Sanz H. ↓, Rabadan D. ↑,
83', Bouzaig A. ↓, Piera J. ↑,
88', Valle B. ↓, Sousa V. ↑,
88', Vazquez B. ↓, Fernandez X. ↑,
89', Ramos J. 🟥,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 12).

Ponferradina is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ourense CF's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ponferradina is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ponferradina won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Including home match between the teams, Ponferradina won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ponferradina	6	3	2	1	5:3	2	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
04.01.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Ponferradina	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Tenerife - Ponferradina	2:0 ✺
13.12.25	Ponferradina - Arenteiro	1:3 ✺
08.12.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Ponferradina	2:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.12.25	Ponferradina - Racing Santander	1:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLTL
- Ourense CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
03.01.26	Ourense CF - Real Avilés	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	Lugo - Ourense CF	2:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
18.12.25	Ourense CF - Athletic Bilbao	0:1 ET ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
13.12.25	Ourense CF - Barakaldo	2:2 ✺
07.12.25	Mérida AD - Ourense CF	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
09.03.25	Ponferradina - Ourense CF	2:0
30.11.24	Ourense CF - Ponferradina	2:1
Club Friendly
03.08.24	Ourense CF - Ponferradina	1:1

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