Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 24

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday


	Pasaia		Portugalete

	1	X	2
	7.3	4.15	1.37
	7.7	4.15	1.4
	7.7	4.28	1.43
	7.7	4.1	1.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.6 ↑ (6.92)	4.17 ↑ (4.01)	1.39 ↓ (1.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pasaia
12.1%

Draw
22%

Portugalete
65.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.2%

22.7%

64.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.1%

22.5%

64.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pasaia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Portugalete has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pasaia than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portugalete than the current prediction. (-1%)

Pasaia - Portugalete Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
69', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pasaia won 3.

Pasaia has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Portugalete is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, Portugalete is the obvious favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Pasaia won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 4:12. (average 0.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Pasaia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Pasaia	5	3	1	1	7:6	1	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pasaia KE
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
22.02.26	San Ignacio - Pasaia	0:2 ✺
14.02.26	Pasaia - Derio	0:3 ✺
07.02.26	Touring KE - Pasaia	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Pasaia - Alavés C	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Pasaia	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 WLTTL
- Club Portugalete
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
22.02.26	Portugalete - Lagun Onak	3:0 ✺
14.02.26	Deusto - Portugalete	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Zarautz KE - Portugalete	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Portugalete - San Ignacio	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Derio - Portugalete	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
18.10.25	Portugalete - Pasaia	0:1
09.02.25	Portugalete - Pasaia	0:1
05.04.24	Pasaia - Portugalete	0:1
19.11.23	Portugalete - Pasaia	2:0
16.04.23	Portugalete - Pasaia	0:1
17.12.22	Pasaia - Portugalete	0:1
12.02.22	Portugalete - Pasaia	3:1

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