Match Info

POLAND: Division 1 - Round 13

Date: 20 October 2024, Sunday

Location: Stadion Miejski w Gdyni (Gdynia)

Referee: Marciniak T. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Polonia, TVP Sport app


	Arka Gdynia		Pogoń Siedlce

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	8	Watch
	1.34	4.8	7.5
	1.33	5	8.5	Watch
	1.33	5.4	8.18
	1.36	4.97	7.85	Watch
	1.29	4.8	8
	1.33	5.1	7.48	Watch
	1.33	5	8.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↑ (1.31)	5.01 ↑ (4.8)	8 ↓ (8.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Arka Gdynia
69.8%

Draw
18.5%

Pogoń Siedlce
11.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.8%

19%

11.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

76.8%

17.3%

10.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Arka Gdynia have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Pogoń Siedlce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arka Gdynia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Siedlce than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	6.7%	6.7%

Arka Gdynia - Pogoń Siedlce Predictions

Users Predictions: Arka Gdynia will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Weglarz D. (G) 2. Navarro M. 23. Hermoso K. 29. Marcjanik M. 94. Gojny D. (C) 9. Gaprindashvili T. 39. Kocaba F. 8. Sidibe A. 27. Oliveira J. 7. Sobczak S. 10. Czubak K.	23. Pruchniewski M. (G) 14. Burka D. 55. Cassio 3. Majewski R. 77. Pik D. 8. Sinior J. 43. Hrnciar L. 10. Pyrdol P. 7. Szuprytowski D. 56. Demianiuk C. 13. Podlinski K.
Substitutes
20. Borecki M. 4. Dobrotka M. 1. Lenarcik P. (G) 16. Ratajczyk A. 19. Rzuchowski M. 21. Skora K. 32. Stolc P. 14. Vitalucci H. 28. Zielinski W.	71. Danielewicz K. 4. Drag M. 31. Dzieciol E. 9. Lutostanski J. 11. Majewski M. 12. Milasius T. 26. Okusami J. 95. Topor E. (G) 17. Zinkevych O.
Coaches
Grzegorczyk T.	Nocon A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Gojny D. ⚽, Navarro M. (A),
23', 2 - 0, Sobczak S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', Sidibe A. ↓, Rzuchowski M. ↑,
62', Cassio 🟨,
67', Sinior J. ↓, Milasius T. ↑,
70', Oliveira J. ↓, Vitalucci H. ↑,
70', Gaprindashvili T. ↓, Skora K. ↑,
73', 2 - 1, Podlinski K. (Pen),
79', Szuprytowski D. ↓, Danielewicz K. ↑,
81', Hrnciar L. ↓, Drag M. ↑,
86', Navarro M. ↓, Stolc P. ↑,
86', Skora K. 🟨,
90+7', Sobczak S. 🟨,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Division 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2).

Arka in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Pogoń Siedlce has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Pogoń Siedlce could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Arka is certain favorite.

Our prediction for today's Arka to win the game is with odds 1.36.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arka won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 14:7 (average 2.8:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Arka won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:1 (average 2.7:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arka Gdynia
Polish Division 1
06.10.24	Odra Opole - Arka Gdynia	0:6 ✺
29.09.24	Arka Gdynia - Chrobry Głogów	2:0 ✺
Polish Cup
25.09.24	Stal Stalowa Wola - Arka Gdynia	2:3 penalties ✺
Polish Division 1
21.09.24	Warta Poznań - Arka Gdynia	0:1 ✺
15.09.24	Arka Gdynia - Kotwica Kołobrzeg	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWWWW
- Pogoń Siedlce
Polish Division 1
05.10.24	Pogoń Siedlce - Wisła Kraków	1:3 ✺
28.09.24	Znicz Pruszków - Pogoń Siedlce	1:0 ✺
22.09.24	Pogoń Siedlce - Polonia Warsaw	2:4 ✺
13.09.24	ŁKS Łódź - Pogoń Siedlce	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
07.09.24	Motor Lublin - Pogoń Siedlce	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
01.04.16	Arka Gdynia - Pogoń Siedlce	3:0
06.09.15	Pogoń Siedlce - Arka Gdynia	2:2
Polish Cup
25.07.15	Arka Gdynia - Pogoń Siedlce	4:1
Polish Division 1
17.05.15	Pogoń Siedlce - Arka Gdynia	4:4
18.10.14	Arka Gdynia - Pogoń Siedlce	1:0

Upcoming Matches