Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 26

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Schüco Arena (Bielefeld)

Referee: Ittrich P. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Onefootball


	Arminia Bielefeld		Paderborn

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.5	2.5	Watch
	2.68	3.4	2.4
	3.05	3.62	2.38
	2.87	3.5	2.39	Watch
	2.7	3.25	2.45
	2.71	3.4	2.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↑ (2.67)	3.45 ↑ (3.35)	2.43 ↓ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arminia Bielefeld
33.8%

Draw
27.4%

Paderborn
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

27.9%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

27.8%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arminia Bielefeld has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Paderborn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arminia Bielefeld than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	30.8%	38.5%

Arminia Bielefeld - Paderborn Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Arminia will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Paderborn will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paderborn: 12% – 65%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Arminia (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Paderborn (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Arminia (votes: 2 - 50%). Paderborn (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kersken J. (G) 27. Boakye B. 5. Bauer M. 19. Grosser M. 17. Sicker A. 29. Handwerker T. 14. Momuluh T. 10. Mehlem M. 6. Corboz M. (C) 37. Sarenren Bazee N. 11. Grodowski J.	41. Seimen D. (G) 25. Scheller T. 20. Gotze F. (C) 4. Brackelmann C. 17. Curda L. 14. Baur M. 5. Castaneda S. 23. Obermair R. 2. Muller R. 7. Bilbija F. 30. Marino S.
Substitutes
2. Hagmann F. 24. Lannert C. 18. Oppermann L. (G) 22. Rochelt J. 23. Schneider L. 8. Schreck S. 7. Telalovic S. 28. Uldrikis R. 38. Worl M.	9. Batzner N. 22. Hansen M. 8. Kinsombi D. 26. Klaas S. 24. Mohr N. 10. Okpala K. 1. Schubert M. (G) 3. Sticker J. 27. Tigges S.
Coaches
Kniat M.	Kettemann R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', Brackelmann C. 🟨,
9', Mehlem M. 🟨,
17', Handwerker T. 🟨,
24', 1 - 0, Grodowski J. ⚽, Sicker A. (A),
45+7', Bauer M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
53', 1 - 1, Marino S. ⚽, Curda L. (A),
62', 1 - 2, Marino S. ⚽, Baur M. (A),
67', Bilbija F. ↓, Klaas S. ↑,
73', Sarenren Bazee N. ↓, Uldrikis R. ↑,
73', Handwerker T. ↓, Worl M. ↑,
76', Curda L. ↓, Sticker J. ↑,
76', Muller R. ↓, Tigges S. ↑,
80', Boakye B. ↓, Lannert C. ↑,
87', Castaneda S. 🟨,
87', Mehlem M. ↓, Rochelt J. ↑,
87', Grodowski J. ↓, Telalovic S. ↑,
90', 2 - 2, Corboz M. (Penalty Awarded),
90+1', Marino S. ↓, Batzner N. ↑,
90+1', Castaneda S. ↓, Hansen M. ↑,
90+2', Kettemann R. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arminia won 2.

Arminia has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Paderborn is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Arminia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Arminia: Hilterman J. (Shoulder Injury) Richter D. (Knee Injury) Russo S. (Yellow Cards) Young I. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Paderborn: Bauerle A. (Inactive) Hoffmeier M. (Knee Injury) Michel S. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Arminia won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 22:18. (average 2:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Arminia won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:7. (average 2.2:1.2).

Outrights of German 2 Bundesliga for now

Arminia Bielefeld: 0.89%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Arminia Bielefeld	6	1	2	3	10:12	-2	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arminia Bielefeld
German 2 Bundesliga
06.03.26	Schalke 04 - Arminia Bielefeld	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Arminia Bielefeld - Hannover	0:1 ✺
20.02.26	Greuther Fürth - Arminia Bielefeld	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Magdeburg - Arminia Bielefeld	0:2 ✺
08.02.26	Arminia Bielefeld - Eintracht Braunschweig	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLLWW
- SC Paderborn 07
German 2 Bundesliga
07.03.26	Paderborn - Eintracht Braunschweig	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Kaiserslautern - Paderborn	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Paderborn - Hertha Berlin	5:2 ✺
15.02.26	Bochum - Paderborn	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Paderborn - Nürnberg	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
18.10.25	Paderborn - Arminia Bielefeld	4:3
20.05.23	Arminia Bielefeld - Paderborn	2:2
08.11.22	Paderborn - Arminia Bielefeld	0:2
03.05.19	Arminia Bielefeld - Paderborn	2:0
30.11.18	Paderborn - Arminia Bielefeld	2:2
21.02.16	Arminia Bielefeld - Paderborn	1:1
29.08.15	Paderborn - Arminia Bielefeld	1:2

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