Match Info

Date: 17 January 2021, Sunday


	Arouca		Mafra

	1	X	2
	2	3.4	3.75
	2	3.2	3.5
	1.9	3.3	3.65
	1.97	3.2	3.7
	2.05	3.44	3.89
	2	3.25	3.75
	2	3.32	3.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.93)	3.3 ↓ (3.39)	3.7 ↓ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
46.7%

Draw
28.1%

Mafra
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

27.3%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.1%

20.8%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Mafra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+16.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arouca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mafra, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Arouca - Mafra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 7 and 8).

Recent matches Arouca is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Mafra has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Arouca will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Arouca won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Arouca won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Portuguese Liga 2
10.01.21	Casa Pia - Arouca	1:1 ✺
05.01.21	Arouca - Académica Coimbra	0:2 ✺
28.12.20	Vilafranquense - Arouca	2:0 ✺
20.12.20	Arouca - Covilhã	1:0 ✺
05.12.20	Oliveirense - Arouca	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TLLWW
- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 2
11.01.21	Académica Coimbra - Mafra	1:0 ✺
03.01.21	Mafra - Chaves	1:2 ✺
20.12.20	Mafra - Oliveirense	2:2 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
15.12.20	Sporting Lisbon - Mafra	2:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
08.12.20	Casa Pia - Mafra	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
02.03.19	Mafra - Arouca	1:1
28.10.18	Arouca - Mafra	2:2

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