Match Info

Date: 11 April 2021, Sunday


	Arouca		Oliveirense

	1	X	2
	1.44	4	7.5
	1.5	3.7	6.25
	1.45	3.95	6.5
	1.48	3.8	6.6
	1.47	4.26	8.12
	1.44	3.9	8
	1.48	3.92	6.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.56)	3.93 ↑ (3.59)	7.12 ↑ (6.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
63.4%

Draw
23.6%

Oliveirense
13%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.1%

25.7%

15.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.7%

21.2%

12.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Oliveirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arouca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oliveirense than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65.2%	13%	21.7%

Arouca - Oliveirense Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 15 - 65.2%). Oliveirense will win (votes: 5 - 21.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arouca: 45.7% – 84.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 6 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Recent matches Arouca is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Oliveirense is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Oliveirense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Arouca is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Arouca won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Arouca won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Portuguese Liga 2
03.04.21	Porto B - Arouca	0:3 ✺
27.03.21	Arouca - Feirense	1:0 ✺
21.03.21	Vizela - Arouca	1:1 ✺
15.03.21	Arouca - Penafiel	0:1 ✺
08.03.21	Benfica B - Arouca	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWTLL
- UD Oliveirense
Portuguese Liga 2
05.04.21	Oliveirense - Leixões	2:1 ✺
26.03.21	Estoril Praia - Oliveirense	3:0 ✺
21.03.21	Oliveirense - Académica Coimbra	0:0 ✺
16.03.21	Covilhã - Oliveirense	1:0 ✺
07.03.21	Oliveirense - Chaves	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
05.12.20	Oliveirense - Arouca	1:2
19.05.19	Oliveirense - Arouca	2:1
13.01.19	Arouca - Oliveirense	0:0
Club Friendly
14.07.18	Arouca - Oliveirense	3:1
Portuguese Liga 2
12.05.18	Oliveirense - Arouca	3:1
07.01.18	Arouca - Oliveirense	3:0
26.08.12	Arouca - Oliveirense	1:0

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