Match Info

Date: 15 March 2021, Monday


	Arouca		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	2	3.1	4	Watch
	1.95	3.2	3.7
	2	3.05	3.65
	2.02	3.05	3.75
	2.09	3.22	4.09
	2.1	3	3.8
	2.07	3.1	3.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.99)	3.1 ↓ (3.2)	3.82 ↓ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
45.7%

Draw
30%

Penafiel
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.8%

29.1%

24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.1%

22.3%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+15.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arouca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Penafiel, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.3%	23.3%	23.3%

Arouca - Penafiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 16 - 53.3%). Penafiel will win (votes: 7 - 23.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 23.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arouca: 35.4% – 71.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

You will have a great opportunity to watch a game between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 6 and 8).

Arouca is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Penafiel is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Penafiel could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Arouca will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Arouca won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Arouca won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Portuguese Liga 2
08.03.21	Benfica B - Arouca	3:1 ✺
27.02.21	Arouca - Cova De Piedade	2:1 ✺
21.02.21	Académico de Viseu - Arouca	0:4 ✺
13.02.21	Arouca - Varzim	0:0 ✺
06.02.21	Leixões - Arouca	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LWWTW
- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
11.03.21	Covilhã - Penafiel	0:2 ✺
07.03.21	Penafiel - Académica Coimbra	1:2 ✺
03.03.21	Penafiel - Oliveirense	1:0 ✺
28.02.21	Mafra - Penafiel	1:0 ✺
21.02.21	Penafiel - Porto B	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
23.10.20	Penafiel - Arouca	2:2
20.01.19	Arouca - Penafiel	2:0
12.08.18	Penafiel - Arouca	1:2
29.04.18	Arouca - Penafiel	1:4
17.12.17	Penafiel - Arouca	2:0
Liga Portugal
19.04.15	Penafiel - Arouca	0:2
07.12.14	Arouca - Penafiel	0:1

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