Match Info

Date: 13 February 2021, Saturday


	Arouca		Varzim

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.5	5.75
	1.7	3.2	5
	1.65	3.2	5.4
	1.65	3.25	5.6
	1.68	3.46	6.59
	1.67	3.2	6.5
	1.66	3.3	5.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.62)	3.3 ↓ (3.35)	5.81 ↓ (5.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
55.9%

Draw
28.1%

Varzim
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.9%

27.6%

15.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

15.6%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Varzim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-23.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arouca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (+11.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Varzim could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Arouca - Varzim Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 6 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

In this match Arouca is a favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Arouca won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Arouca won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Portuguese Liga 2
06.02.21	Leixões - Arouca	0:1 ✺
02.02.21	Arouca - Estoril Praia	1:0 ✺
24.01.21	Chaves - Arouca	2:1 ✺
17.01.21	Arouca - Mafra	0:0 ✺
10.01.21	Casa Pia - Arouca	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWLTT
- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 2
06.02.21	Varzim - Chaves	1:3 ✺
31.01.21	Porto B - Varzim	0:1 ✺
22.01.21	Oliveirense - Varzim	1:1 ✺
17.01.21	Varzim - Casa Pia	0:1 ✺
10.01.21	Penafiel - Varzim	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.5 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
22.09.20	Varzim - Arouca	0:0
06.04.19	Varzim - Arouca	1:0
09.12.18	Arouca - Varzim	0:1
25.02.18	Arouca - Varzim	1:2
17.09.17	Varzim - Arouca	0:0
Portuguese League Cup
04.01.17	Arouca - Varzim	3:0
11.10.15	Varzim - Arouca	0:1 penalties

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