Match Info

SPAIN: Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 19

Date: 26 January 2025, Sunday


	Arroyo		Jerez

	1	X	2
	2.37	3.3	2.5
	2.38	3.48	2.5
	2.45	3.5	2.54
	2.41	3.35	2.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↓ (3.2)	3.41 ↑ (3.38)	2.52 ↑ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arroyo
37.6%

Draw
26.5%

Jerez
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.4%

26.9%

44.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.3%

26.8%

44.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arroyo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Arroyo's performance.

Jerez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jerez might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arroyo than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arroyo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jerez than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jerez could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Arroyo - Jerez Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+2', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arroyo won 2.

Arroyo is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Jerez is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Jerez will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Arroyo won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 8:13 (average 0.8:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Arroyo won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5:7 (average 0.8:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arroyo
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
19.01.25	Santa Amalia - Arroyo	1:0 ✺
12.01.25	Calamonte - Arroyo	0:1 ✺
22.12.24	Arroyo - Montijo	1:2 ✺
14.12.24	Villafranca - Arroyo	4:0 ✺
07.12.24	Arroyo - Moralo	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LWLLL
- Jerez CF
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
19.01.25	Jerez - Llerenense	2:1 ✺
12.01.25	Jerez - Olivenza	2:1 ✺
21.12.24	Badajoz - Jerez	1:1 ✺
14.12.24	Santa Amalia - Jerez	1:0 ✺
08.12.24	Jerez - Calamonte	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
21.04.24	Jerez - Arroyo	3:1
02.12.23	Arroyo - Jerez	2:2
02.04.23	Arroyo - Jerez	1:0
04.12.22	Jerez - Arroyo	1:2
24.04.22	Jerez - Arroyo	1:0
19.12.21	Arroyo - Jerez	1:1
31.01.21	Jerez - Arroyo	1:0

Arroyo - Jerez: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide