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Arsenal - Sporting Lisbon: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals
  • Date: 15 April 2026, Wednesday
  • Location: Emirates Stadium (London)
  • Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Arsenal Sporting Lisbon
    Arsenal Sporting Lisbon
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.56 ↑
    (1.41)    		 4.31 ↓
    (4.82)    		 6.03 ↓
    (7.67)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

    • The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Arsenal
    61.8%    		Draw
    22.3%    		Sporting Lisbon
    16%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    67.7% 19.8% 12.5%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    70.3% 19.1% 12%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Arsenal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arsenal's form might have worsened.
  • Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (+8.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arsenal, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (-4%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    66.7% 7.2% 26.1%
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    Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 62 users predict this event. Arsenal will win (votes: 41 - 66.1%). Sporting will win (votes: 16 - 25.8%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 8.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Arsenal: 54.3% – 77.9%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Arsenal (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Sporting (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1 - Sporting (12.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Sporting (2.46) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 6.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • TQ, OT - Sporting (8.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -2.5 - Arsenal (4.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Arsenal (votes: 8 - 32%). Sporting (votes: 16 - 64%). Tie (votes: 1 - 4%).
    •
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. SpainRaya D. (G)
      3. SpainMosquera C.
      2. FranceSaliba W.
      6. BrazilGabriel
      5. EcuadorHincapie P.
    36. SpainZubimendi M.
    41. EnglandRice D. (C)
    20. EnglandMadueke N.
    10. EnglandEze E.
    11. BrazilMartinelli G.
    14. SwedenGyökeres V.
    		  1. PortugalSilva R. (G)
    72. PortugalQuaresma E.
    26. IvoryDiomande O.
    25. PortugalInacio G.
    20. UruguayAraujo M.
    42. DenmarkHjulmand M. (C)
      5. JapanMorita H.
    10. MozambiqueCatamo G.
    17. PortugalTrincao
      8. PortugalGoncalves P.
    97. ColombiaSuarez L.
    Substitutes
    13. SpainArrizabalaga K. (G)
    56. EnglandDowman M.
    39. EnglandDudziak H.
      9. BrazilGabriel Jesus
    29. GermanyHavertz K.
    49. EnglandLewis-Skelly M.
    16. DenmarkNorgaard C.
    89. EnglandSalmon M.
    35. EnglandSetford T. (G)
    19. BelgiumTrossard L.
      4. EnglandWhite B.
    		70. PortugalBlopa S.
    23. PortugalBraganca D.
      6. BelgiumDebast Z.
    15. SenegalFaye S.
    58. PortugalGoncalves F.
    14. GeorgiaKochorashvili G.
    91. PortugalMangas R.
    90. PortugalNel R.
      7. PortugalQuenda G.
    52. PortugalSimoes J.
    13. GreeceVagiannidis G.
    12. PortugalVirginia J. (G)
    Coaches
         SpainArteta M.
    		     PortugalBorges R.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 0)
    • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
    • 56', Gyökeres V. ↓, Havertz K. ↑,
    • 63', Madueke N. ↓, Dowman M. ↑,
    • 70', Arteta M. 🟨,
    • 71', Catamo G. ↓, Quenda G. ↑,
    • 71', Goncalves P. ↓, Braganca D. ↑,
    • 77', Morita H. ↓, Simoes J. ↑,
    • 79', Eze E. ↓, Gabriel Jesus ↑,
    • 79', Martinelli G. ↓, Trossard L. ↑,
    • 79', Araujo M. 🟨,
    • 85', Quaresma E. ↓, Vagiannidis G. ↑,
    • 85', Trincao ↓, Nel R. ↑,
    • 90+4', Borges R. 🟨,

    Preview

  • First leg result: 1-0. Second leg.
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 2.
  • In recent matches, Arsenal has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
  • Sporting is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
  • In this match, Arsenal is the obvious favorite.
  • There will not play in Arsenal: Merino M. (Foot Injury)
  • There are questionable in Arsenal: Calafiori R. (Knock) Odegaard M. (Muscle Injury) Saka B. (Injury) Timber J. (Ankle Injury)
  • There are questionable in Sporting: Fresneda I. (Muscle Injury) Ioannidis F. (Knee Injury) Luis Guilherme (Ankle Injury) Santos N. (Injury) Simoes J. (Injury)
  • In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:5. (average 1.7:0.8).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Arsenal won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).
    • banner

    Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now
    Arsenal: 10.87% Sporting CP: 0.76%
    Last Results with these Odds

    Arsenal - the odds 1.41 are the expected chance of winning is 67.73%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Arsenal FC
    English Premier League
    11.04.26 Arsenal - Bournemouth 1:2 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    07.04.26 Sporting Lisbon - Arsenal 0:1 ✺
    English FA Cup
    04.04.26 Southampton - Arsenal 2:1 ✺
    English League Cup
    22.03.26 Arsenal - Manchester City 0:2 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    17.03.26 Arsenal - Bayer Leverkusen 2:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1
    LWLLW
    - Sporting Lisbon
    Liga Portugal
    11.04.26 Estrela da Amadora - Sporting Lisbon 0:1 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    07.04.26 Sporting Lisbon - Arsenal 0:1 ✺
    Liga Portugal
    03.04.26 Sporting Lisbon - Santa Clara 4:2 ✺
    22.03.26 Alverca - Sporting Lisbon 1:4 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    17.03.26 Sporting Lisbon - Bodø Glimt 5:0 ET ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2
    WLWWW
    Latest Head to Head
    UEFA Champions League
    07.04.26 Sporting Lisbon - Arsenal 0:1
    26.11.24 Sporting Lisbon - Arsenal 1:5
    UEFA Europa League
    16.03.23 Arsenal - Sporting Lisbon 1:2 penalties
    09.03.23 Sporting Lisbon - Arsenal 2:2
    08.11.18 Arsenal - Sporting Lisbon 0:0
    25.10.18 Sporting Lisbon - Arsenal 0:1
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Arsenal FC
    English Premier League
    12.09.26 Sunderland - Arsenal ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    09.09.26 Napoli - Arsenal ✺
    English Premier League
    06.09.26 Arsenal - Chelsea ✺
    - Sporting Lisbon
    UEFA Champions League
    09.09.26 Sporting Lisbon - Galatasaray ✺
    Liga Portugal
    05.09.26 Sporting Lisbon - Nacional ✺

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