Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 7 April 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	21:00	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	16:00	Disney+, FOX Sports
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 2, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 3, Pickx+ Sports 3, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Bolivia	15:00	ESPN 2
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	16:00	HBO Max
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 4
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	15:00	ESPN 5, ESPN Premium
China	03:00	iQIYI, ZhiBo8
Colombia	14:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Ecuador	14:00	ESPN 2
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 2, CANAL+ Sport, Free
Germany	21:00	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong Kong	03:00	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	21:00	RTL+, Sport 1
Iceland	19:00	SÝN Sport
India	00:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, Vidio
Ireland	20:00	Premier Sports 1 ROI
Israel	22:00	5 LIVE Israel
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Arena
Kazakhstan	01:00	Kazakhstan TV
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Macao	03:00	TDM TV
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 2, Sooka
Mexico	13:00	HBO Max
Myanmar	01:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 2
New Zealand	07:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	20:00	SuperSport Football Plus, Supersport Maximo 1
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	00:00	Tapmad
Paraguay	15:00	ESPN 2
Peru	14:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Philippines	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 2
Portugal	20:00	Sport TV5
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	03:00	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	21:00	Nova Sport 3
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub 1
South Africa	21:00	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
South America	—	ViX Latin America
South Korea	04:00	SPOTV Now
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport D2, Blue Sport D2, Canal+ Sport, Canal+ Sport, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	03:00	ELTA Sports 2
Thailand	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	22:00	Tabii Spor 1, Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:00	Amazon Prime Video, BBC Radio 5 Live
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter
Vietnam	02:00	ON Football, ON Plus, VTV Prime
International	19:00	Sport 24 Extra


	Sporting Lisbon		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.7	1.8
	4.4	3.7	1.85
	4.48	3.76	1.87
	4.32	3.71	1.89	Watch
	4.2	3.5	1.83
	4.44	3.79	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.36 ↓ (4.43)	3.69 ↓ (3.71)	1.85 ↑ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon
22%

Draw
26%

Arsenal
52%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

21.7%

25.9%

52.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.3%

25.5%

53.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Arsenal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.9%	16.7%	65.5%

Sporting Lisbon - Arsenal Predictions

Users Predictions: 84 users predict this event. Sporting will win (votes: 15 - 17.9%). Arsenal will win (votes: 55 - 65.5%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arsenal: 55.3% – 75.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +0.5 - Sporting (2.03) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Sporting (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Arsenal will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Arsenal (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva R. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 26. Diomande O. 25. Inacio G. (C) 20. Araujo M. 5. Morita H. 52. Simoes J. 10. Catamo G. 17. Trincao 8. Goncalves P. 97. Suarez L.	1. Raya D. (G) 4. White B. 2. Saliba W. 6. Gabriel 33. Calafiori R. 8. Odegaard M. (C) 36. Zubimendi M. 41. Rice D. 20. Madueke N. 14. Gyökeres V. 19. Trossard L.
Substitutes
23. Braganca D. 6. Debast Z. 41. Diego Callai (G) 15. Faye S. 58. Goncalves F. 14. Kochorashvili G. 91. Mangas R. 90. Nel R. 72. Quaresma E. 13. Vagiannidis G. 12. Virginia J. (G)	13. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 56. Dowman M. 9. Gabriel Jesus 71. Harriman-Annous A. 29. Havertz K. 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 11. Martinelli G. 3. Mosquera C. 16. Norgaard C. 79. Ranson K. (G) 89. Salmon M.
Coaches
Borges R.	Arteta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Morita H. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', Simoes J. ↓, Braganca D. ↑,
70', Odegaard M. ↓, Havertz K. ↑,
76', Madueke N. ↓, Dowman M. ↑,
76', Trossard L. ↓, Martinelli G. ↑,
79', Goncalves P. ↓, Nel R. ↑,
90+1', 0 - 1, Havertz K. ⚽, Martinelli G. (A),

Preview

First leg.

Sporting is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Arsenal has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Arsenal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Arsenal is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Sporting: Hjulmand M. (Yellow Cards) Ioannidis F. (Knee Injury) Santos N. (Injury)

There will not play in Arsenal: Eze E. (Calf Injury) Hincapie P. (Injury) Merino M. (Foot Injury) Saka B. (Injury) Timber J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Sporting: Luis Guilherme (Ankle Injury) Quenda G. (Foot Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Sporting won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 1:2.7).

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	6:2	4	7
12	Sporting CP	3	2	0	1	7:4	3	6

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Arsenal: 12.14% Sporting CP: 0.81%

Last Results with these Odds

Arsenal - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 52.46%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
03.04.26	Sporting Lisbon - Santa Clara	4:2 ✺
22.03.26	Alverca - Sporting Lisbon	1:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.03.26	Sporting Lisbon - Bodø Glimt	5:0 ET ✺
11.03.26	Bodø Glimt - Sporting Lisbon	3:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
07.03.26	Braga - Sporting Lisbon	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWWLT
- Arsenal FC
English FA Cup
04.04.26	Southampton - Arsenal	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
22.03.26	Arsenal - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.03.26	Arsenal - Bayer Leverkusen	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
14.03.26	Arsenal - Everton	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.03.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Arsenal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
26.11.24	Sporting Lisbon - Arsenal	1:5
UEFA Europa League
16.03.23	Arsenal - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 penalties
09.03.23	Sporting Lisbon - Arsenal	2:2
08.11.18	Arsenal - Sporting Lisbon	0:0
25.10.18	Sporting Lisbon - Arsenal	0:1

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