Match Info

Premier League - Round 22

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: City Ground (Nottingham)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Nottingham Forest		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.9	1.62
	5.9	3.95	1.62
	5.94	3.98	1.64	Watch
	5.5	3.7	1.6
	6	4.1	1.61	Watch
	6	3.8	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.81 ↑ (5.6)	3.91 ↓ (4.26)	1.62 ↑ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nottingham Forest
16.5%

Draw
24.5%

Arsenal
59.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.8%

22.1%

61.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.5%

21.6%

62.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nottingham Forest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Arsenal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

The ML Model estimate for Nottingham Forest aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.2%	3.1%	88.8%

Nottingham Forest - Arsenal Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DC - Nottingham (2.32) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH 0 - Nottingham (4.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Nottingham (4.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +1 - Nottingham (2.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Arsenal will win (86 of 96 users predict this - 89.58%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.47% – 95.69%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Arsenal will win (36 of 37 users predict this - 97.3%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 42 Selected Experts predict this event. Nottingham (votes: 4 - 9.5%). Arsenal (votes: 37 - 88.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 2.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Sels M. (G) 34. Aina O. 31. Milenkovic N. 5. Murillo 3. Williams N. 8. Anderson E. 6. Sangare I. 16. Dominguez N. 10. Gibbs-White M. (C) 19. Igor Jesus 7. Hudson-Odoi C.	1. Raya D. (G) 4. White B. 2. Saliba W. 6. Gabriel 12. Timber J. 8. Odegaard M. (C) 36. Zubimendi M. 41. Rice D. 20. Madueke N. 14. Gyökeres V. 11. Martinelli G.
Substitutes
9. Awoniyi T. 12. Douglas Luiz 18. Gunn A. (G) 21. Hutchinson O. 24. McAtee J. 4. Morato 14. Ndoye D. 37. Savona N. 22. Yates R.	13. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 10. Eze E. 9. Gabriel Jesus 29. Havertz K. 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 23. Merino M. 3. Mosquera C. 7. Saka B. 19. Trossard L.
Coaches
Dyche S.	Arteta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Timber J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Martinelli G. ↓, Trossard L. ↑,
57', Madueke N. ↓, Saka B. ↑,
57', Gyökeres V. ↓, Gabriel Jesus ↑,
57', Odegaard M. ↓, Merino M. ↑,
76', Igor Jesus ↓, Ndoye D. ↑,
79', Zubimendi M. ↓, Eze E. ↑,
89', Dominguez N. ↓, Hutchinson O. ↑,
90', Aina O. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nottingham won 0.

Nottingham is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Arsenal is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Arsenal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Arsenal is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Nottingham: John Victor (Injury) Wood Ch. (Knee Injury) Yates R. (Hamstring Injury) Zinchenko O. (Loan agreement)

There will not play in Arsenal: Calafiori R. (Injury) Dowman M. (Ankle Injury) Hincapie P. (Injury) Mosquera C. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Nottingham won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 8:26. (average 0.7:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Nottingham won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1.2:1.3).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Arsenal: 60.13% Nottingham: 0.4%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8:4	4	12
13	Nottingham	5	1	2	2	4:5	-1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Arsenal - the odds 1.54 are the expected chance of winning is 61.1%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nottingham Forest
English FA Cup
09.01.26	Wrexham - Nottingham Forest	4:3 penalties ✺
English Premier League
06.01.26	West Ham United - Nottingham Forest	1:2 ✺
03.01.26	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	3:1 ✺
30.12.25	Nottingham Forest - Everton	0:2 ✺
27.12.25	Nottingham Forest - Manchester City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLLL
- Arsenal FC
English League Cup
14.01.26	Chelsea - Arsenal	2:3 ✺
English FA Cup
11.01.26	Portsmouth - Arsenal	1:4 ✺
English Premier League
08.01.26	Arsenal - Liverpool	0:0 ✺
03.01.26	Bournemouth - Arsenal	2:3 ✺
30.12.25	Arsenal - Aston Villa	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
13.09.25	Arsenal - Nottingham Forest	3:0
26.02.25	Nottingham Forest - Arsenal	0:0
23.11.24	Arsenal - Nottingham Forest	3:0
30.01.24	Nottingham Forest - Arsenal	1:2
12.08.23	Arsenal - Nottingham Forest	2:1
20.05.23	Nottingham Forest - Arsenal	1:0
30.10.22	Arsenal - Nottingham Forest	5:0

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